China's economy likely to show bottoming

(MarketWatch) -- Key Chinese economic data due out this week may mark the low point from which a recovery will follow, economists say.
"The worst of statistics in terms of GDP are probably behind us," said Credit Suisse's Chief Asian Economist Dong Tao in Hong Kong. "Either the fourth quarter of last year, or the first quarter of this year are probably the worst in terms of China's growth cycle."
China's gross domestic product growth likely slowed to 6% in the January-March quarter, according to the median forecast of 15 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, compared to a 6.8% expansion in the fourth quarter.

The first-quarter GDP figures are due to be released Thursday morning in Beijing, or 9 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday.
The big question in the minds of China watchers is whether the 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package -- along with other measures designed to kick start the economy -- are beginning to find traction.
For the most part, analysts were upbeat over the latest batch of data, released over the weekend, which showed efforts to inject cash into the economy appear to working.
Money supply, as measured by M2, expanded 25.5% in the first quarter from a year earlier. Meanwhile, banks extended 4.58 trillion yuan in new loans in the quarter, nearly as much as the 4.9 trillion yuan that was issued in all of 2008.
Those two figures prompted several analysts to say new bank-lending growth this year looks likely to top 8 trillion yuan, up from the government's earlier 5 trillion yuan target.


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