(Reuters) - Kasriel argues that the relationship between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the federal funds rate has signaled every recession since that of 1969.
"I have modestly named this combination the Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator," he said. "The KRWI is now sending out a recession warning as of the first quarter of this year, in that the yield spread is negative and the real monetary base is contracting."
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