Diary of a JSE Stock Operator Edition 5

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2010-04-18T01:28:00.001-07:00

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Chinalco May Accept Lower Stake in Rio Tinto, Herald Says

2009-05-20T21:28:00.000-07:00

(Bloomberg) -- Aluminum Corp. of China, the nation’s biggest aluminum producer, may take a smaller stake in Rio Tinto Group to win approval for its $19.5 billion investment, the Sydney Morning Herald said, citing people close to the company.

Chinalco is open to letting Rio sell convertible bonds to other shareholders, reducing its planned stake to 15 percent, the Herald said. That may allow the state-owned entity to avoid breaching foreign ownership rules and placate investors concerned at not being offered stock on the same terms.

Rio has agreed to sell $7.2 billion of convertible debt and $12.3 billion worth of stakes in its mines to Chinalco and use the funds to pay debt. The mooted changes don’t remove concerns that an arm of China’s communist government will gain too much control over Rio and its Australian assets, said Senator Barnaby Joyce, who is leading a campaign against the deal.

“There is one thing they want and that is a meaningful interest in the company,” said Ric Ronge, who helps manage the equivalent of $775 million, including Rio shares, at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. “Everything will be done to ensure that the deal does go through.”

Rio rose 2.4 percent in Sydney trading to A$66.32 at 11:51 a.m. after gaining 4.3 percent in London yesterday. Under the existing proposal, Chinalco’s stake in Rio Tinto may double to 18 percent should it convert all the debt.

Chinalco Vice President Lu Youqing couldn’t be immediately reached for comment. Rio’s Melbourne-based spokeswoman Amanda Buckley declined to comment.

“We still have the same problem that the resource in situ, in the ground, is owned by another nation’s government,” Senator Joyce today told Bloomberg Television.

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Facebook CEO says IPO a few years out

2009-05-19T21:37:00.000-07:00

(Reuters) - Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg hopes to eventually take his company public but said it won't be for a few years, and stressed that the world's largest online social network is in no immediate need of capital.

The 25-year-old co-founder of Facebook said he is always open to partnerships and investments, but stressed that Facebook can achieve its business goals with its current financial base -- despite numerous media reports that it has had talks on a new round of funding with various investors.

"If there's an investment to be done on very good terms, we will consider it if for no other reason than to have more buffer if we want to do something in the future," Zuckerberg told the Reuters Global Technology Summit.

"Some of the rumblings that people are reporting on, are just different conversations that have happened, but there's really nothing new to talk about there," he added in a telephone interview from Palo Alto, California.

The TechCrunch blog said earlier on Tuesday that Facebook had turned down a $200 million funding offer, which valued the company at $8 billion. Earlier this week, VentureBeat reported that Facebook was in discussions for $150 million in funding.

Zuckerberg declined to confirm these reports.

Facebook has more than 200 million active users, double the number it had last August. The company also ranks as one of the top photo-sharing websites, with more than 15 billion pictures uploaded onto its service.

In 2007, Microsoft Corp invested $240 million in Facebook in exchange for a 1.6 percent stake in the company, giving the social network a $15 billion valuation.

Zuckerberg said on Tuesday that Facebook was not rushing to go public.

"I know for a lot of companies the IPO is the endpoint or the goal," Zuckerberg said. "For us it will be an event on the path to where want to get eventually."

Asked when the time would be right to float shares to the public, he said the 5-year-old company was still "a few years out from that."

Zuckerberg said advertising remains the core revenue source for the company, with Facebook on track to increase sales 70 percent this year and be cash flow positive next year. He declined to specify how much revenue Facebook expects to generate this year.

Facebook works with more than 70 percent of the top 100 largest advertisers in the United States, Zuckerberg said, and the company was also seeing fast growth in international markets, where it has begun to create a direct sales staff.

And with Facebook increasingly taking steps to make aspects of the service available on other websites, like its recent Facebook Connect feature, Zuckerberg said the company could eventually develop a type of online advertising network.

"You can see over time us wanting to offer more ways for people to monetize their site and help out with that, and it could be a pretty natural extension for us to do something with ads or a number of other things that we've considered," he said.

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U.S. budget chief says signs of economic free-fall over

2009-05-17T21:30:00.001-07:00

(Reuters) - The Obama administration's budget chief said on Sunday there are signs that the free-fall in the economy seems to have halted.

"There are some glimmers of sun shining through the trees, but we're not out of the woods yet," White House budget director Peter Orszag said on CNN's State of the Union.

U.S. economic data have shown evidence that the recession's worst phase may be over, with April consumer prices unchanged and industrial output declining at a slower pace than in March.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has also suggested that the recession should end this year as long as there is no reemergence of the credit crunch.

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Nike slashes 5 percent of global jobs in largest cut

2009-05-14T22:01:00.000-07:00

(Reuters) - Nike Inc, the world's largest maker of athletic shoes and apparel, will slash 5 percent of its 35,000-strong global workforce, or 1,750 jobs, in the largest headcount reduction in the company's history.

The sweeping overhaul to boost competitiveness and clamp down on costs for the owner of the famous "swoosh" logo will include about 500 positions at Nike's Beaverton, Oregon, headquarters, the company said on Thursday.

Nike said it employs about 6,800 workers at its headquarters.

The sports-gear brand first said in February that a review of its sprawling worldwide operations would likely result in a 4 percent staff reduction, or about 1,400 jobs.

Nike has already choked off production at factories in China and Vietnam, trimmed marketing spending, and reorganized its global business into six geographical groups, making China its own region.

While trying to weather a downturn in consumer spending by streamlining its global supply chain and flattening management, Nike has remained relatively resilient during the slump.

Still, shares have lost nearly a quarter of their value in the last year.

The company has banked on the cachet associated with its brand and a diversified portfolio to help it stay on course even as rivals Adidas and Puma have stumbled.

"We recognize the allure of Nike's best of breed status, robust cash flow ... and U.S. share gains, but believe there are meaningful headwinds that will pressure sales, margins and earnings," Sterne Agee analysts said in a May 12 report.

The company's sales declined in its most recent quarter, especially in Europe. Quarterly margins are also under pressure, but the company's selling, general and administrative costs fell nearly 4 percent in its most recent third quarter.

Nike said it hoped to complete most of the layoffs over the coming weeks.

The company's shares held steady in after-hours trading.

"Our new structure sharpens our consumer focus globally to drive continued growth," CEO and President Mark Parker said in a statement. "The decision to reduce our workforce has been a difficult and challenging one.

Besides layoffs, the company has been adjusting its supply chain to cut costs. In March, Nike said it would halt production at three of its Chinese factories and one in Vietnam, which use contract workers not directly employed by the company.

Nike is also cutting back on its marketing spending, which spiked last year in advance of the Beijing Olympics.

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Miller Wrestles Whitney in Showdown Over Bank Stocks

2009-05-13T21:18:00.001-07:00

(Bloomberg) -- The returns on Legg Mason’s Value Trust mutual fund depend on Bill Miller being right about bank stocks and Meredith Whitney being wrong.

Miller, who beat the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index for a record 15 straight years before stumbling in 2006, says financial companies are his favorite investment for the rest of the decade. Whitney, the former Oppenheimer & Co. stock analyst who became one of Wall Street’s first bears when credit markets started to freeze in 2007, said banks are “grossly overvalued” after government evaluations of their financial health.

The stakes are greater for Miller, 59, who lost more money in the past three years than 99 percent of rival managers by owning Bear Stearns Cos., Freddie Mac and American International Group Inc., according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Morningstar Inc. Whitney, 39, proved prescient by telling her clients to avoid Citigroup Inc., Wachovia Corp. and UBS AG, which lost at least two-thirds of their value last year.

“It could be Bill is right and the vast majority of banks will earn their way out of this,” said William Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC Financial Services Group Inc.’s wealth management unit, which oversees $96 billion in Philadelphia. “But if the economy takes another nosedive and the adverse feedback loop begins again with a vengeance, then maybe it’s Meredith.”

Miller declined to comment, while Whitney didn’t return phone calls or an e-mail message seeking comment.

Bad Bets

Miller, a so-called value investor who seeks the cheapest companies relative to earnings or assets, posted the worst returns within his fund’s category in the past three years, data compiled by Chicago-based research firm Morningstar show.

The fund lost 55.1 percent in 2008 after Miller underestimated the magnitude of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. In April last year, a month after Bear Stearns collapsed and was taken over by JPMorgan Chase & Co., he wrote in a letter to fund shareholders that “we have seen the bottom in financials.”

The S&P 500 has tumbled 36 percent since then, with a measure of banks plummeting 56 percent. Today, the S&P 500 fell 2.7 percent to 883.92. Financial stocks dropped 5.2 percent, the biggest decline of 10 industry groups in the broader index.

Miller boosted his stake in McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac, once the second-largest U.S. mortgage-finance company, to 17.7 million shares from 5.9 million shares in the first half of 2008, Securities and Exchange Commission filings show.

Most Upside

Miller’s holdings in New York-based AIG, once the world’s biggest insurer, also increased to 9.68 million shares from 8.45 million shares at the end of 2007. Both companies were taken over by the government in September.

“He’s made massive bets in institutions that were wiped off the face of the exchange,” said Frederic Dickson, who helps oversee $20 billion as chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon.

This year, Miller’s fund has gained 8.1 percent, putting him among the top 10 percent in his category, according to data compiled by Morningstar.

“Financials have the biggest potential to outperform,” he said last week, naming his favorite picks as San Francisco-based Wells Fargo & Co., Capital One Financial Corp. in McLean, Virginia, and New York-based American Express Co.

Home Prices

Miller’s bets hinge on U.S. home prices stabilizing this year and an economy that performs better than projections from the Federal Reserve. The central bank said in January that gross domestic product will shrink by 0.5 percent to 1.3 percent in 2009. Miller projects U.S. equity markets will rise 20 percent to 30 percent in 2009.

More than 19 percent of the Value Trust was invested in financial stocks at the end of the first quarter, according to Legg Mason Inc.’s Web site, greater than their 12.8 percent share of the S&P 500 now.

In the first three months of 2009, Miller bought about 3.77 million shares of Wells Fargo, the largest U.S. mortgage originator, and almost quadrupled his position in credit-card company Capital One, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Legg Mason’s Web site. Miller also increased his stake in American Express, the biggest U.S. credit-card company by purchases, by about 22 percent, the data show.

Since March 31, Wells Fargo has gained 70 percent. Capital One rose 96 percent, while American Express added 77 percent.

Survival of the Fittest

Today, Wells Fargo lost 5.8 percent, while Capital One slipped 6 percent and American Express decreased 5.3 percent.

Financial companies in the S&P 500 have increased 87 percent since falling to a 17-year low on March 6 as concern waned that more banks, brokerages and insurance companies will fail during the longest U.S. recession since World War II.

Financial stocks in the S&P 500 traded at 20.45 times estimated 2009 earnings yesterday, the lowest since Bear Stearns’s collapse in March last year.

“When you get past the two-to-three-year horizon where they work through their problems, the valuations today are exceptionally cheap,” said Scott Minerd, chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners Asset Management, which manages $30 billion. “Survival for banks is not a question anymore.”

While Miller is beating the S&P 500 for the year, anyone who bought shares of the Value Trust between July 1997 and October 2008 and never sold them has lost money, according to monthly data compiled by Bloomberg and Morningstar. During that period, the index returned more than 20 percent, including dividends. The fund has given up about $17.7 billion of its assets under management since May 2007, or 82 percent.

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Nina Wang’s $4.2 Billion Fortune Lands Back in Court

2009-05-12T21:30:00.000-07:00

(Bloomberg) -- It’s a tale of love, murder, feng shui and $4.2 billion.

For the second time in a decade, the wealth amassed by property tycoon Teddy Wang has ended up in Hong Kong’s high court, which began a trial yesterday to decide whether the fortune should go to the family run company Wang built or to a 50-year-old feng shui master called Tony Chan.

The court will judge which is the real will of Nina Wang, Teddy’s wife, who herself had to wrest control of the inheritance in 1999 after her kidnapped husband was declared legally dead, though his body was never found.

At stake is the wealth of Asia’s richest woman when she died in 2007, according to Forbes magazine, including control of Chinachem Group, the company she built with Teddy, which owns some 200 buildings in Hong Kong and millions of square feet of development land.

“The estate battle is just like a soap opera,” said Kenny Tang, Hong Kong-based executive director of Redford Securities Co. “The details are too absurd even for a movie.”

The dispute is a further twist in the fate of a fortune Teddy Wang built up over three decades, turning his father’s Shanghai paint and chemical business into one of Hong Kong’s biggest closely held real estate developers. His wife only gained control of his estate years after Teddy had been kidnapped and presumed dead.

‘Little Sweetie’

Dubbed “Little Sweetie” by the Hong Kong media for her pigtails and traditional Chinese dresses, Nina Wang died of cancer on April 3, 2007, at the age of 69. The Shanghai native, born Nina Kung, was a childhood friend of Teddy, whom she married in 1955. They had no children.

Chan will present the famous pigtails at the trial as evidence of their intimate relationship, the Standard newspaper reported yesterday, citing an unidentified spokesman for Chan.

Denis Chang, a lawyer for the Chinachem foundation, told the court that Nina Wang gave Chan three payments totaling HK$2.06 billion ($265.8 million), the Standard reported today.

Wang left her estate to Chan because he understood her personal and business philosophy, Jonathan Midgley, a lawyer at Haldanes, the firm representing Chan, told reporters on April 20, 2007, 13 days after she died. Four days later, Chinachem filed a writ asking the court to decide which will is valid.

‘Nina’s Lover’

In November 2008, Midgley said Chan, who is married with three children, had been Nina’s “lover,” and that the two had a “long, close and affectionate relationship” for about 15 years. Chan later released photographs showing them together, with his hand on her shoulder. Midgley didn’t answer calls to his mobile phone or an e-mail seeking comment. Calls to his office were answered by his secretary, who said he was unavailable.

Chan has business interests in property development and practices feng shui as a hobby, Midgley said in 2007. The High Court appointed accountants from Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu in December 2007 to oversee Chinachem pending the trial.

Feng shui, which means “wind-water,” is a Chinese geomantic practice in which a site is chosen or a building configured in harmony with spiritual energy.

“I can say that in all 27 years I’ve known Nina, I never heard of, nor met, Tony Chan,” Ringo Wong, managing director of Chinachem Entertainment Ltd. and Wang’s former personal assistant, told reporters on April 27. He declined to comment on the trial.

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AIG CEO to fight criticism of employees: report

2009-05-11T21:57:00.001-07:00

(Reuters) - American International Group Chief Executive Edward Liddy will speak out against criticism of the insurer's employees on Wednesday and talk about the company's future plans, the Wall Street Journal said.

Liddy will speak to a U.S. House oversight committee and ask for a better partnership with the government, according to the paper.

"Rampant, unwarranted criticism of AIG serves only to diminish the value of our businesses around the world," the paper quoted Liddy's prepared testimony.

The government has stepped forward three times as AIG's benefactor, committing some $180 billion in its efforts to rescue the insurer in exchange for an 80 percent stake. The government aid includes some $85 billion in loans that the insurer is trying to repay through divestitures.

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American Express files for permission to repay TARP

2009-05-07T21:45:00.000-07:00

(Reuters) - American Express Co (AXP.N) asked on Thursday for permission to repay the $3.4 billion in TARP funds it received, after the U.S. government stress test showed the credit card firm is well capitalized.

According to bank regulators' guidance, American Express has to show it can issue long-term debt in the public markets that is not backed by government guarantees in order to repay the TARP funds, the fourth-largest U.S. credit card company said.

American Express became a bank last November as bond markets closed down and lenders outside the banking system began looking to fund themselves with deposits. Being a bank also helped American Express win access to capital from the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program.

"Since then, financial markets have become more stable, and American Express has made substantial progress in adapting to a very difficult economic environment," the company said in a statement.

The stress test estimated American Express had enough resources to remain profitable, even in a worst case scenario of 20 percent of credit card losses over 2009 and 2010.

Chief Financial Officer Daniel Henry told analysts on a conference call that American Express did not plan to raise common equity.

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iPhone app tracks stimulus spending

2009-05-06T21:41:00.000-07:00

(CNNMoney.com) -- Arkansas said Wednesday it launched the first iPhone application to track state projects funded through the federal stimulus package.

The free application, Arkansas.gov Recovery Project Search, is available through the Apple iTunes Store and can be downloaded to an iPhone or iPod Touch

"We want transparency in the recovery process," said Chris Masingill of the Arkansas State Recovery Office. "This is taxpayers' money, so we want them to have the information and the tools to access it."

Users can search keywords to find Arkansas state project names and descriptions, including location, dollar allocation, start date and percentage completed.

The location lookup feature displays projects by city or county name, and the "Near Me" button uses an iPhone's Global Positioning System to find projects near the user's location.

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Why stimulus money goes unspent

2009-05-05T21:35:00.001-07:00

(CNNMoney.com) -- The federal government has made available more than $74 billion in stimulus funds, but the majority of that money has yet to hit the streets.

That's because states have to jump through hoops before they can claim the funds and put them to use. Some have to get approval from their legislatures before they can spend the money. Others must wait for municipalities and school districts to submit applications to state agencies before distributing the dollars.

These are some of the main reasons why states have drawn down only $15.6 billion of the $74 billion made available to them in the 11 weeks since President Obama signed the $787 billion recovery act. Nearly $14 million of that amount has gone to help states handle the crush of Medicaid expenses.

Still, many states are not waiting to get the checks in hand before putting the stimulus funds to use. They are reversing some of their deepest cuts to public services -- particularly for education and social services -- in anticipation of getting the funds.

States have a lot of money to spend. They, along with local governments, are charged with administering about $280 billion of stimulus funds over the next few years, according to the Government Accountability Office, which is tracking states' use of the money. About $49 billion will be doled out this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30.

Of that amount, about 90% will be spent on health, transportation and education, primarily through the Medicaid, highway infrastructure and state fiscal stabilization for education programs.

Other than for Medicaid, however, the majority of the money has yet to leave Washington. States have spent only $7.9 million in highway funds, about 10% of what's been made available, according to a federal Department of Transportation report from April 24. And they haven't claimed any of the $5.4 billion in state stabilization funds for education, though eight states have had their applications approved over the past two weeks.

Of course, in some cases, federal agencies dole out the funds over time. For road projects, states request reimbursement from the federal government as they pay the bills. So spending will always lag behind the dollars committed.

"Some outlays happen over years," said Lana Hurdle, the federal Department of Transportation's acting assistant secretary for budget and programs. "It's not something that happens over weeks. There's more than just one single bill per project."

States have even more work to do before they can claim other funds. Some programs, such as energy efficiency and law enforcement, require the states to apply for dollars. For others, such as job training for youths, states have to receive proposals from companies or social service agencies before they can award the money.

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AIG nears $1B sale of Japanese HQ

2009-05-04T21:35:00.000-07:00

(Reuters) -- American International Group Inc. is near a deal to sell its Japanese headquarters for about $1 billion in what would be one of its largest asset sales since a September rescue, a source familiar with the matter said Monday.

A Japanese insurance company is expected to buy the prized building in the Otemachi section of Tokyo, although at least two parties were looking at the property, the source said.

A deal for the building, which overlooks the Imperial Palace, is expected to be announced later this week, the source said.

AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) declined to comment on the news, which was first reported by the Wall Street Journal. The source did not want to be identified because the deal has not been announced yet.

The price for the building is in line with what was expected when it was put on the market in February.

Merrill Lynch (MWL) is running the auction for the Tokyo building.

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World Bank Bonds Show What Happens in State Rescues

2009-05-03T21:25:00.000-07:00

(Bloomberg) -- Federal guarantees by 13 countries on more than $400 billion of financial company bonds are punishing the AAA-rated World Bank Group with record borrowing costs -- an indication of what can go wrong when government gets in the way.

The Washington-based World Bank, founded in 1944 to rebuild economies after World War II, sold $6 billion of three-year notes March 26 priced to yield 30 basis points more than the benchmark for such borrowings. The so-called spread was the widest for a dollar-denominated bond offering by the supranational lender, said George Richardson, the institution’s head of capital markets, in an interview.

Just seven months ago, the World Bank paid a record low 35 basis points less than the midswap rate, a market measure for exchanging fixed- and floating-rate cash flows. The sudden rise in World Bank relative bond yields is an unintended consequence of sales of taxpayer-backed debt by more than 50 companies, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. While these special offerings were designed to bring stability to the credit markets after $1.4 trillion in losses and writedowns in the past 28 months, no one realized the World Bank would be depreciated by such government policies.

“Governments started announcing guarantees for their banks, and then the whole world changed,” said Richardson, a former Goldman Sachs banker.

Rising Sales

Rising risk premiums are also affecting the Washington- based Inter-American Development Bank, which lends to Latin American and Caribbean countries, and Germany’s state-owned Kreditanstalt fuer Wiederaufbau, whose credit supports housing, education and small business.

Banks and financial companies worldwide sold 320 billion euros ($424 billion) of state-guaranteed debt since October, denominated in euros, dollars and U.K. pounds, according to Leef Dierks, a fixed-income analyst at Barclays Capital in Frankfurt.

They may issue a total of 900 billion euros in bonds for all of 2009, Dierks said.

The total includes $235 billion of dollar-denominated debt in the U.S. with backing from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. as of yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Lenders backed by multiple governments, known as supranationals, have the flexibility to borrow billions in multiple currencies and at any part of the yield curve, making their bonds among the most liquid securities.

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AIG: Doomed to fail?

2009-04-28T21:34:00.001-07:00

(CNNMoney.com) -- Once a titan in the insurance world, AIG is a shadow of its former self, and experts say the company is likely doomed for failure.

That's partly because AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) is slowly getting rid of its strong, moneymaking businesses as it attempts to pay back the roughly $130 billion it has borrowed on its $182 billion government bailout.

The company had to give up more than it had anticipated to pay back taxpayers because of the horrid credit environment, and analysts believe AIG may be giving up too much for it to survive on its own. Not that there was much choice.

"The plan has been, since the first days of the bailout, to sell off the crown jewels including its investment arm and very strong insurance units, because that's all the market will accept now," said Julie Grandstaff, managing director of StanCorp Investment Advisers. "It was the only way to save the organization, but it's questionable if there will be a freestanding AIG in the end."

What AIG is losing: On March 2, AIG transferred its property and casualty businesses into a new, separate company called AIU Holdings. AIG did the same with its AIA Asian life insurance business and ALICO foreign life insurance unit.

The government will eventually take a stake in AIA and ALICO, and on April 22, AIG began the process of selling off a minority stake in AIU to investors. Eventually, all three companies will have their own boards, management and could even trade on the stock market separately from AIG.

AIG has also attempted to sell off many of its other subsidiaries, but those purchases have been small in number and value. The largest of the 10 sold-off units was AIG's car insurance unit, which the company earlier this month announced it would sell for $1.9 billion. The next largest unit was its Hartford Steam Boiler unit, which fetched $745 million.

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Deutsche Bank Chief’s Contract Extended After Navigating Crisis

2009-04-27T21:29:00.001-07:00

(Bloomberg) -- Josef Ackermann, who helped Deutsche Bank AG navigate the financial crisis, will have his contract as chief executive officer extended by three years.

Ackermann, 61, acceding to a supervisory board request, will remain CEO until the annual general meeting in 2013, Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank said in a statement late yesterday. He was scheduled to step down in May of next year.

The Swiss-born CEO, who has been at the helm since 2002, helped Deutsche Bank skirt the worst of the U.S. subprime mortgage market crash and resist taking government aid. The German bank returned to profit in the first quarter, analyst estimates show, bouncing back from the first annual loss in more than 50 years in 2008.

“This is about continuity,” said Manfred Jakob, a Frankfurt-based analyst at SEB AG. “Ackermann has best exemplified the company’s strategy of both pursuing investment banking and expanding retail banking. Overall, it’s not a bad move.”

Deutsche Bank, which reports first-quarter earnings today, may post net income of 773 million euros ($1.02 billion), compared with a loss of 131 million euros a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 13 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Ackermann “steered the bank safely through the crisis,” said supervisory board Chairman Clemens Boersig in the statement. “Our performance in the first quarter 2009 is impressive evidence of this.”

‘Secures’ Leadership

Deutsche Bank rose 55 percent so far this year in Frankfurt trading. The stock is the third-biggest gainer in the Bloomberg index of 65 European banks, following a 69 percent slump last year. The company has a market value of 26.9 billion euros.

Ackermann said on Feb. 5 at the annual earnings press conference in Frankfurt that he was sticking to his plan to step down in May 2010, when asked by Bloomberg News whether he’d consider extending his contract.

Deutsche Bank appointed four executives to its management board in March, stoking speculation one of them would be selected to succeed Ackermann. Investment banking co-heads Anshu Jain and Michael Cohrs were named to the board, as was Rainer Neske, the head of private and business clients, and regional management chief Juergen Fitschen.

The decision to extend the contract “secures leadership continuity for the bank,” Boersig said in the statement.

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Retest coming?

2009-04-23T21:20:00.000-07:00

(MarketWatch) -- New bull market, or bear market rally?
That's the big debate currently, of course -- with a lot apparently riding on the right answer. But what if it doesn't make that much of a difference?
I ask because new bull markets often retest the lows of the bear markets that preceded them. That means that, even if a new bull market is now underway, it is not necessarily essential that you immediately increase your equity exposure.

Consider what happened after the 2000-2002 bear market came to an end on Oct. 9, 2002, at the 7,286 level on the Dow Jones Industrial Average . Over the next 49 calendar days, the Dow turned in a 23% rally. That's remarkably similar to the current rally, which as of Thursday night is 45 days old and in which the Dow has risen 22%.
But, following that 49-day rally in 2002, the Dow declined for a few months, in the process setting up a retest of its Oct. 9 low. By the subsequent March 11, for example, the Dow stood at 7,524, just 3.3% above the bear market low.
If the 2002-2003 script were to be followed today, the Dow would fall back in coming weeks to the 6,763 level.

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Treasury Said to Ask Chrysler Banks to Cut Debt to $1.5 Billion

2009-04-22T21:21:00.000-07:00

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury asked Chrysler LLC’s secured lenders to reduce their debt to $1.5 billion from $6.9 billion in exchange for a 5 percent equity stake in the automaker, a person familiar with the negotiations said.

The offer followed by a day a proposal by the lenders to reduce the debt to about $4.5 billion and take 40 percent equity. The person describing the Treasury offer asked not to be identified discussing the private talks.

Treasury and the lenders, made up of four banks and about 45 investment funds, are still far apart as a government deadline of April 30 approaches for Chrysler to cut most of its secured debt, reach cost-saving labor accords and forge an alliance with Fiat SpA. The government has been negotiating with the lenders on Chrysler’s behalf.

The proposal from the lenders also asked Fiat to make a cash contribution to its proposed Chrysler alliance, said people familiar with their offer.

Treasury submitted an initial offer to the lenders early this month to reduce their loan obligations to about $1 billion. The lenders rejected that request and crafted a counter-offer using new business assumptions for Chrysler based on a partnership with Fiat, the people said.

Treasury spokeswoman Jenni Engebretsen declined to comment. The Wall Street Journal reported the offer earlier.

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Barendrechters Stand Up to Shell’s Plan to Bury CO2

2009-04-20T21:30:00.001-07:00

(Bloomberg) -- The Dutch town of Barendrecht has a message for Royal Dutch Shell Plc: Not under my backyard.

The oil company and the Netherlands government intend to build the first of a new generation of carbon-dioxide storage facilities in two depleted natural-gas fields in Barendrecht. The plan is to capture emissions from a gasification hydrogen plant at Shell’s nearby Pernis refinery and then store the CO2 more than a mile below area homes, preventing the greenhouse gas from reaching the air and harming the environment.

“I don’t think this is the solution to the CO2 problem,” said 53-year-old resident Gerard van Gils. “Why do a project in a residential area and not offshore? The atomic bomb wasn’t tested under Manhattan. To me this means: Not under my backyard.”

Barendrechters like Van Gils say they’re concerned about safety and a possible drop in property values. Governments around the world want energy companies to store CO2 instead of releasing it, to combat global warming. The Netherlands aims to bury 30 million tons of CO2 by 2030 and is spending about 750 million euros ($980 million) in three years on CO2 reduction.

Carbon capture and storage, or CCS, involves extracting CO2 from power generation and industrial projects, compressing it and injecting it into depleted oil and gas fields or saline aquifers. The technology would allow prolonged use of coal for electricity generation while reducing greenhouse pollution.

“We are very confident about the safety of the project,” said Margriet Kuijper, CCS project manager at Shell. “Barendrecht is strategically important for Shell and for the Netherlands, as it is paving the way for the bigger projects.”

Environmental Assessment

An independent environmental assessment this month will determine whether the project at Barendrecht, on the outskirts of Rotterdam, addresses all concerns. The city council, which so far has opposed the plan, will deliver a final decision by June 29. That can still be overruled by the Dutch government, which commissioned the project.

In its preliminary finding, the council said public support was “lacking” and asked Environment Minister Jacqueline Cramer to halt the venture.

“This project is an experiment, and we don’t think that it is a good idea to have that in a densely populated area,” Simon Zuurbier, alderman of the city council, said in an interview. “It would be better to do it somewhere else.”

Negligible Risks

The Dutch Economic Affairs and Environment Ministries sought proposals for the project. Shell’s plan is to inject as much as 10 million tons of CO2 into the fields, the same amount of the gas created by heating one million modern houses over five years.

The fields are about 1,700 meters (5,577 feet) and 2,700 meters underground. Shell, Europe’s largest oil company, says the risks are negligible and within government standards.

The proximity of the refinery to the ageing gas fields and the existing pipelines make Barendrecht the ideal site for a trial project, The Hague-based Shell said.

Other countries are competing for European Union funding to support similar projects. BP Plc in 2007 scrapped a $1 billion carbon capture and storage power project in Scotland because possible U.K. government money would come too late.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling will introduce incentives this week for U.K. businesses to capture carbon dioxide and store it underground, two people familiar with the plans have said.

Read more here

Asian Shares Rise Before Weekend; Tech Stocks Solid

2009-04-16T21:37:00.000-07:00

(MarketWatch) -- Asian shares were higher Friday, led by technology stocks after their U.S. peers gained on hopes for better demand and some stability in the economy there.

Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 2.2% with Australia's S&P/ASX 200 up 1.5% and South Korea's Kospi Composite up 0.7%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was up 1.9% with Taiwan's main index up 0.7% but the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.9%.
"It's all reasonably positive at the moment," with U.S. bank earnings so far not a major cause for concern, said MF Global senior trader Anthony Anderson in Australia.
All eyes though were on Citigroup's report, due later Friday. "If it doesn't throw up too many surprises we're probably going to test high levels," Anderson said.
Wall Street gained Thursday amid hopes for an economic bottom in the U.S., though U.S. stock futures were mildly lower in screen trade as the weekend drew near.
Google shares erased an initial late-session gain to be down 0.1%, despite news its first-quarter net income rose 8.9% on higher revenue and U.S. paid clicks for Internet searches, with the results topping Wall Street's estimates.

And Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen sounded a note of caution on the U.S. outlook. "The global nature of the downturn raises the odds that the recession will be prolonged, since neither we nor our trade partners can look to a boost from foreign demand."

Barclays Capital analysts said sentiment had improved dramatically over the past month, with risky assets rallying. "The verdict is still out on whether this is just another bear market correction or a sign of better times to come."
In Asia, Toshiba was up 4.1% after the company said it likely sustained a group operating loss of around Y250 billion for the year ended last month, a narrowing from its existing estimate of a Y280 billion loss, helped by output cuts by chipmakers

Asian tech shares generally were finding buyers with Samsung Electronics up 2.9%, LG Electronics up 4.3% and Hynix up 8.3%. Sony added 4.9% in Japan with TDK up 5.8% and Elpida up 6.7%.

Taiwan's Nanya Technology was up 3.1% with Inotera Memories up 6.7%, helped by a recent rise in DRAM prices. Nanya said Thursday it planned to raise contract chip prices 10% in the latter part of April; "contract prices will likely remain strong throughout this year amid an expected supply shortage although demand won't likely to pick up any time soon," said Kim Gee-soo at Goodmorning Shinhan Securities.
LG Display added 4.2% in Seoul. It posted its second-straight quarterly net loss in the three months ended March 31, but the flat-panel maker signaled better results in the current quarter.

Financial stocks were gaining across Asia with National Australia Bank up 2.0% and Commonwealth Bank of Australia rising 2.0%, too. Korea's KB Financial was up 1.8%, with bank stocks helped by Thursday's rise in JPMorgan Chase shares in the U.S. after its results.

Tourism stocks gained in Taiwan before cross-strait trade negotiations, with Formosa International Hotel up 3.4% and China Airlines higher by 0.7%.
Cathay Pacific Airways was up 0.7% in Hong Kong, even as it said it was reducing its passenger and cargo capacity and would ask some staff to take unpaid leave over the next 12 months.

Hong Kong developer stocks were higher, helped by brisk sales at Cheung Kong's new project Central Park Towers II, with Cheung Kong up 1.7% and Sino Land up 4.6%.

Read more here

Economy still worsening across U.S.: Beige Book

2009-04-15T21:41:00.000-07:00

(MarketWatch) - The economy continued to worsen across the United States in March and early April, amid scattered signs that the pace of the decline was lessening in some regions, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday in its Beige Book account of the economy.

"Overall economic activity contracted further or remained weak," the Fed said, based on reports from thousands of business sources across the country. "However, five of the 12 districts noted a moderation in the pace of decline, and several saw signs that activity in some sectors was stabilizing at a low level."

The report, written by the economics staff at the Dallas Fed, generally agrees with comments by top policymakers that there are some signs that the economy may be getting worse at a slower pace.
The economy declined at a 6.3% annual pace in the fourth quarter, and economists are forecasting a decline of 5% in the first quarter and about 2% in the current quarter.

Read more at MarketWatch

China's economy likely to show bottoming

2009-04-15T03:55:00.000-07:00

(MarketWatch) -- Key Chinese economic data due out this week may mark the low point from which a recovery will follow, economists say.
"The worst of statistics in terms of GDP are probably behind us," said Credit Suisse's Chief Asian Economist Dong Tao in Hong Kong. "Either the fourth quarter of last year, or the first quarter of this year are probably the worst in terms of China's growth cycle."
China's gross domestic product growth likely slowed to 6% in the January-March quarter, according to the median forecast of 15 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, compared to a 6.8% expansion in the fourth quarter.

The first-quarter GDP figures are due to be released Thursday morning in Beijing, or 9 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday.
The big question in the minds of China watchers is whether the 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package -- along with other measures designed to kick start the economy -- are beginning to find traction.
For the most part, analysts were upbeat over the latest batch of data, released over the weekend, which showed efforts to inject cash into the economy appear to working.
Money supply, as measured by M2, expanded 25.5% in the first quarter from a year earlier. Meanwhile, banks extended 4.58 trillion yuan in new loans in the quarter, nearly as much as the 4.9 trillion yuan that was issued in all of 2008.
Those two figures prompted several analysts to say new bank-lending growth this year looks likely to top 8 trillion yuan, up from the government's earlier 5 trillion yuan target.

Read more at MarketWatch

Bono Plays Matchmaker as YouTube, Universal Create Music Site

2009-04-14T22:29:00.000-07:00

(Bloomberg) -- Since MTV started in 1981 with “Video Killed the Radio Star,” record labels have treated videos as a marketing expense. Now, with album sales plummeting, music companies aim to make them a source of profit.

That’s the goal of Universal Music Group’s venture with Google Inc.’s YouTube. Vevo.com, a new site announced last week, will stream videos from artists such as U2, Beck and the Rolling Stones. YouTube will then split advertising revenue with Universal, the world’s largest music company.

The agreement is a sign of progress in the record industry’s efforts to make money from YouTube, the biggest online video service. Internet ads could help the labels rebound from a 45 percent plunge in U.S. album sales since 2000, according to Nielsen SoundScan. Working with YouTube also may let the industry rein in the wild-west nature of online music.

“As an industry or a company, we have to figure out how to derive some sort of revenue from the consumption of music, whether or not people buy it,” said Rio Caraeff, executive vice president of Universal Music’s ELabs, which handles its e- commerce strategy.

Over dinner earlier this year in Paris, U2 singer Bono urged Universal Music Chairman Doug Morris to get in touch with Google Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt about working together, according to a person with knowledge of the talks.

Giving Away

The revenue-sharing plan is a shift from the 1980s and 1990s, when videos from artists such as Bon Jovi, Madonna and ‘N Sync were given free to MTV for marketing purposes. With album sales falling, music stores closing and MTV moving to a reality-television format, videos need to start paying for themselves.

New York-based Universal, owned by France’s Vivendi SA, says its videos have been watched on YouTube more than 3.6 billion times.

“The video used to be just a cost center,” Jean-Bernard Levy, CEO of Vivendi, said in an interview last month. “We used to do lots of great artistic videos that we gave away to MTV and other people for free. We didn’t get paid. Now it’s becoming a profit center.”

Universal and Google executives are asking the other major record labels to join their partnership. That includes Sony Music Entertainment, EMI Group Ltd. and Warner Music Group Corp.

Jeanne Meyer, a spokeswoman for EMI, said talks with YouTube are at a “very early stage.” Warner Music’s Will Tanous declined to comment on the discussions. Claire von Schilling, a Sony spokeswoman, didn’t return a call seeking comment.

‘High Hopes’

YouTube also needs new ways to make money. The business will lose $470 million in 2009, according to Credit Suisse estimates. A deal with Universal could be a model for agreements with other content providers, allowing the Web site to charge premium ad rates for professionally made clips.

“We have high hopes we’re creating a sustainable, profitable business model,” David Eun, vice president of strategic partnerships at Mountain View, California-based Google, said on a conference call last week.

YouTube, famous for the low-budget videos posted by its users, is trying to add more premium content. Of the top 100 most-viewed video producers on YouTube, 39 are from musicians and labels, according to David Burch, a marketing manager with the video-tracking firm TubeMogul Inc. in Emeryville, California.

Read more at Bloomberg

UPDATE 1-RESEARCH ALERT-UBS raises aluminum price forecasts

2008-03-27T07:07:00.001-07:00

... key producer regions, including South Africa and China. The brokerage said energy cost pressures and ... closed at $36.03 Wednesday on New York Stock Exchange. (Reporting by Jennifer Robin Raj in Bangalore; ...

Read more at EINnews

Forex - US dollar lower against yen in early Asian trade on weak US data

2008-03-27T07:04:00.001-07:00

... > > > Forex - US dollar lower against yen in ... a shift to the safety of the Japanese currency. The US Commerce Department said Wednesday ... the release Tuesday of the Bank of Japans quarterly Tankan survey of business sentiment. Ten ...

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Eight million shares contacts as ISX session opens

2008-03-26T11:45:00.001-07:00

... Baghdad, 26 March 2008 (Voices of Iraq) -- Iraqs Stock Exchange (ISX) index decreased by 0.661 % to settle at 37.550 points at the closuring ...

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Basra Calling

2008-03-26T11:43:00.001-07:00

... world-wide newsbox all lead with the in Iraq as Shiite militias loyal to cleric Muqtada ... the midst of a " ." The stock market is at the same level it was ...

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Forex - Euro rises on stronger-than-expected Ifo

2008-03-26T11:39:00.001-07:00

... Forex - Euro rises on stronger-than-expected Ifo LONDON ... from 200.27 sfr 2.0082 down from 2.0190 Australian dollar usd 0.9154 down from 0.9157 stg ...

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Depa to list on Dubai International Financial Exchange and London Stock...

2008-03-26T11:36:00.001-07:00

... in Qatar, the Four Seasons Hotel in Egypt, the Four Seasons Hotel in Mumbai, India ... global depositary receipts (GDRs) on the London Stock Exchange plc (the Prospectus). Copies of the Prospectus ...

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Toronto stocks set to cool, eyes on shaky buyouts

2008-03-26T11:32:00.001-07:00

... TORONTO, March 26 (Reuters) - The Toronto Stock Exchanges main index was set to cool, but ... the collapse of blockbuster takeover talks between Anglo-Swiss miner Xstrata (XTA.L: U.S. stock futures, meanwhile, ...

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Why Not Optimism?

2008-03-26T11:28:00.001-07:00

... treaties. Schumer himself has spent years bashing China, threatening the nation with huge tariffs if ... available, even to small businesses. In the stock market, the best-performing sectors since the Jan. 22 ...

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Pakistans political stability critical for the local market

2008-03-26T11:19:00.001-07:00

... YORK (MarketWatch) -- The swearing in of Pakistans new prime minister Tuesday is a step ... 31%. The market capitalization of the Karachi Stock Exchange is about $75 billion, while Pakistans GDP ... indicates the enormous potential of the local stock market, Dzierwa said. Local retail investors dominate Pakistans ...

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Nigeria: Guaranty Trust Bank Debuts in UK-Posts $750m GDR

2008-03-25T09:38:00.001-07:00

... million of Global Depository Receipts (GDR) thereby becoming the first African bank and first Nigerian company to be listed on the main market of London stock exchange. In a statement by the Standard Times Press, the managing director of the bank, ...

Read more at EINnews

KOSPI Could Be Higher Again On Tuesday

2008-03-25T09:33:00.001-07:00

... hit five sessions for the South Korean stock market - and the global market continues to ... Copyright(c) 2008 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved *Swiss Franc Inches Up Further To 98.91 Against ...

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Heavy fighting in southern Iraqi oil hub

2008-03-25T09:30:00.001-07:00

... news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Reuters ...

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New Intel Server Processors: Fewer Watts, High Performance

2008-03-25T09:26:00.001-07:00

... Calif., St. Albans, England, and St. Petersburg, Russia. For more information visit www.ARC.com. ARC International ... ARC International is listed on the London Stock Exchange as ARC International plc (LSE:ARK). ARC and ...

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Riskmetrics recommendation

2008-03-25T09:24:00.001-07:00

... Gold 25 March 2008 For immediate release Moscow, March 25, 2008 RiskMetrics Report Recommends against ... Gold (RTS, MICEX and LSE - PLZL), Russia's leading gold producer, today announced that RiskMetrics, ... The company news service from the London Stock Exchange Note 1 Company names will not be ...

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Besa Sets Record for Bonds

2008-03-24T07:34:00.001-07:00

... but Greubel said it would take another couple of months. One source said the JSE was opposed to the recapitalisation of the bond market and thought better market efficiencies ...

Read more at EINnews

Korea military to adapt energy saving training

2008-03-24T07:26:00.001-07:00

Commodity Online SEOUL: In an effort to save energy, South Korean military on Monday decided to introduce a new type of training in the face of record oil prices.

Gold prices decline but above 1 month lows

2008-03-24T00:39:00.001-07:00

Commodity Online SINGAPORE: Gold prices declined but stayed above a 1 month low hit the previous day, while Tokyo\s precious metals futures tumbled amid declines in commodities markets.

Why the Feds rate cuts wont help you

2008-03-22T01:48:00.001-07:00

In its efforts to keep irresponsible bankers on Wall Street afloat, the Federal Reserve is spurring inflation, crippling the dollar and cutting into retirees incomes. And mortgages and car loans wont get any cheaper.

Wachovia says housing downturn nowhere near over

2008-03-12T08:18:00.001-07:00

(Reuters) - Wachovia Corp (WB.N: Quote, Profile, Research), which offers adjustable-rate mortgages that let borrowers decide how much to pay each month, believes the U.S. housing downturn is far from over, Chief Risk Officer Don Truslow said.

"It feels like we have a ways to go," Truslow said on a Deutsche Bank Securities Inc conference call. Referring to the nine innings of a baseball game, Truslow said he was "unsure" whether the downturn was in the third, fourth or fifth inning, but "we haven't reached the seventh-inning stretch."

Charlotte, North Carolina-based Wachovia, the fourth-largest U.S. bank, on February 28 said it expected first-half loan losses to exceed 0.75 percent of loans on an annualized basis in 2008, higher than it had forecast two weeks earlier.

Read more at Reuters

Liberty CEO says he was point man in IAC talks

2008-03-12T08:17:00.001-07:00

(Reuters) - Liberty Media Chief Executive Greg Maffei said on Wednesday that he was the point man in talks with IAC/InterActiveCorp over disengaging the two companies despite a long-standing relationship between Liberty Chairman John Malone and IAC CEO Barry Diller.

"John Malone considered Barry Diller a friend" after a business partnership of nearly 12 years, Maffei told a Delaware court, where IAC and controlling shareholder Liberty are battling over a proposal to spin off four of IAC's businesses.

"While (Malone) was not entirely happy and increasingly unhappy with the performance at IAC ... because of the friendship, I don't think (he) was willing to tackle some of the issues," Maffei said. "I have been in effect the point person. I don't believe it's a personal matter."

Liberty's board put him in that role despite concerns of a potential conflict between Maffei and Diller. The two had clashed over IAC's purchase of online travel site Expedia several years before.

IAC and Liberty sued each other in January after Diller proposed a spinoff plan that would dilute Liberty's majority voting control over the businesses as separate entities.

The plan followed more than a year of inconclusive talks on a possible swap that would give IAC's HSN shopping network to Liberty in return for Liberty's stake in IAC.

Diller, a former television and film executive, built IAC with Malone's backing over more than a decade. While Liberty owns about 30 percent of IAC shares, it holds 62 percent voting control through a second class of super-voting stock.

Read more at Reuters

GO Capital Halts Redemptions From Global Hedge Fund

2008-03-12T08:12:00.001-07:00

(Bloomberg) -- GO Capital Asset Management BV blocked clients from withdrawing cash from its Global Opportunities Fund, at least the seventh hedge fund in the past month forced to take steps to protect itself from falling markets.

Frans van Schaik, the former head of equity research at ABN Amro Holding NV who founded the Amsterdam-based fund in 2000, wrote to investors that the fund is not leveraged and not facing margin calls. The fund, which bets both on rising and falling prices, has assets of about 570 million euros ($881 million).

``A temporary suspension of redemptions is the best defensive measure to protect the interests of the participants,'' van Schaik and other members of GO Capital's management said in a letter posted on their Web site and dated March 11. ``Current market circumstances do not allow the fund to sell investments at a reasonable price.''

At least six hedge funds totaling more than $5.4 billion have been forced to liquidate or sell holdings since Feb. 15 as contagion from the U.S. subprime slump spreads for a seventh month. Others include Peloton Partners LLP's $1.8 billion ABS Fund, Tequesta Capital Advisor's mortgage fund and Focus Capital Investors LLC, which invested in midsize Swiss companies.

GO focused mostly on listed European equities, although it was not restricted in investments it could make, the Web site says. The fund planned to make bets on between 10 and 30 stocks and looked for ``situations of overreaction or stress,'' according to the Web site.

Read more at Bloomberg

U.S. Stocks Rise, Led by Industrials, on Caterpillar Forecast

2008-03-12T08:05:00.001-07:00

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks gained for a second day, extending the market's biggest rally in five years, after forecasts from Caterpillar Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. spurred speculation that profits will rebound this year.

Caterpillar, the largest maker of bulldozers, rose the most in three months after saying emerging markets will boost sales. Bear Stearns, the second-biggest underwriter of U.S. mortgage bonds, climbed after Chief Executive Officer Alan Schwartz told CNBC the firm has enough money to weather market fluctuations.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index increased 2.26 points, or 0.2 percent, to 1,322.91 at 10:44 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 49.99, or 0.4 percent, to 12,206.8. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 9.1, or 0.4 percent, to 2,264.86. Four stocks gained for every three that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. Shares in Europe and Asia gained.

Industrial shares contributed the most to the rally after Caterpillar said machinery orders in emerging markets and efforts to improve public works in North America and Europe will boost sales.

Read more at Bloomberg

Goldman says can't rule out Fed emergency rate cut

2008-03-10T08:20:00.001-07:00

(Reuters) - An emergency interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve is possible ahead of its March 18th policy meeting, according to a Goldman Sachs research note on Monday.

Goldman said its view on Fed policy changed on Friday.

The government reported on Friday that a second straight month of job losses and the Fed announced new steps to inject liquidity into the financial system as credit availability remains tight.

Read more at Reuters

Carlyle Capital Says Lenders May Force Further Sales

2008-03-10T08:16:00.001-07:00

(Bloomberg) -- Carlyle Group's mortgage-bond fund said creditors may liquidate as much as $16 billion of securities unless the two sides reach agreement on debt repayments.

The fund has asked lenders to refrain from further sales after they liquidated collateral securing $5 billion of debt, Carlyle Capital Corp. said in a statement today. It is meeting lenders to discuss more than $400 million of margin calls and is ``evaluating all options,'' the Guernsey, Channel Islands-based fund said.

Carlyle Capital used loans to buy about $22 billion of AAA rated mortgage debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which the firm says have an ``implied guarantee'' from the U.S. government. Even the safest mortgage bonds have slumped following the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market, leading to the failure of hedge funds led by Peloton Partners LLP.

``This particular Carlyle entity wasn't prepared,'' said Philip Keevil, a senior partner in London at Compass Advisers LLP and former head of European mergers at Salomon Smith Barney Inc. ``They hadn't started selling ahead of time and now they're having trouble liquidating their positions.''

Started by David Rubenstein 21 years ago, Carlyle expanded its mortgage investments last year, selling $300 million of shares in Carlyle Capital.

``Due to recent turmoil in the market for mortgage-backed securities, the company's lenders have significantly reduced the amount they are willing to lend against the company's portfolio of U.S. government agency AAA-rated residential mortgage-backed securities,'' Carlyle Capital said today.

Read more at Bloomberg

Blackstone Profit Falls 89% on Credit Market Meltdown

2008-03-10T08:10:00.001-07:00

(Bloomberg) -- Blackstone Group LP, manager of the world's largest buyout fund, said fourth-quarter profit plunged 89 percent after a ``meltdown'' in the credit markets and warned that getting loans for takeovers will be hard in 2008.

Profit excluding costs tied to its June initial public offering declined to $88 million, or 8 cents a share, from $808.1 million, or 72 cents, a year earlier, the New York-based company said today in a statement. Blackstone fell as much as 5.2 percent in New York trading as earnings missed analysts' estimates.

``Credit market problems persist and if anything have gotten worse,'' Blackstone President Tony James said on a conference call with reporters today. ``We're looking to 2009 before we see much of an improvement.''

Blackstone, which has lost 55 percent of its market value since the IPO, hasn't completed a takeover of more than $2 billion in five months as credit costs doubled and the LBO market shut down. It's struggling to close the $6.6 billion buyout of Alliance Data Systems Corp., the Dallas-based credit- card processor, announced in May.

Earnings were hurt by a decline in fees earned by completing acquisitions and a writedown of its investment in New York-based bond insurer Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. Blackstone invested $2.33 billion of capital in the quarter, down 31 percent from a year earlier.

Net Loss

``Among the risks are that LBO financing conditions continue to worsen and erode Blackstone's ability to earn sufficient private-equity returns,'' Bank of America Corp. analyst Michael Hecht wrote in a March 6 report to investors. Hecht, who is based in New York, cut his fourth-quarter estimate to 11 cents from 25 cents. The average estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was 20 cents a share.

Blackstone fell 55 cents, or 3.7 percent, to $14.03 at 10:17 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. It earlier fell to $13.82, the lowest since the IPO.

Blackstone reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $170 million because of compensation costs tied to the IPO. Revenue rose 17 percent to $3.05 billion. The firm agreed to buy GSO Capital Partners LP for as much as $930 million in January to expand investments in distressed debt and leveraged loans.

``Despite the meltdown'' in credit markets, the company sees deal opportunities, especially in Asia, Chairman Stephen Schwarzman said in the statement.

Assets under management jumped 47 percent to $102.4 billion, driven by real estate, which doubled to $26.1 billion. Money-management assets rose 65 percent to $44.5 billion. Private-equity assets gained 7 percent to $31.8 billion.

Blackstone as Proxy

LBO financing evaporated last July as banks and investors pulled out of the market amid the fallout from rising subprime- mortgage delinquencies. The value of deals announced in the second half of 2007 plunged two-thirds from the first six months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

``We're a proxy for the credit markets,'' Blackstone President Hamilton James said at the Super Returns private equity conference in Munich on Feb 26.

Still, seven of the eight analysts who rate Blackstone recommend clients buy the stock, including Hecht. The other recommendation is a ``hold.''

Other publicly traded companies that make private-equity investments also have suffered. New York-based Fortress Investment Group LLC has fallen 58 percent in the past year, while 3i Group Plc of London has lost 42 percent.

Read more at Bloomberg

Gold's glitter lures buyers

2008-03-06T06:06:00.001-08:00

(Reuters) - Gold's near vertical climb to historic highs approaching the key $1,000 mark shows no sign of abating as bullish forces such as a sinking dollar and record high oil are not seen fading anytime soon.

Fears that expensive oil will stoke inflation combined with worries over potential stock market losses and the U.S. on the brink of possible economic recession will propel gold higher still, analysts say.

"Don't be surprised to see gold trade up to $1,100 (an ounce) or even $1,200 before year-end 2008," said Jeffrey Nichols, managing director of American Precious Metals Advisors.

"And, with the right confluence of economic and geopolitical developments, we could see gold spike to $1,500 or even $2,000 in the next few years," he said.

Gold hit a record high of $991.90 an ounce on Thursday and was at $986.90/987.40 at 1144 GMT. It has jumped 20 percent this year, 56 percent in the past 12 months, doubled in about 2 years and surged from a low of around $250 in August 1999.

It was previously fixed at a record high of $850 in January 1980 as high inflation linked to strong oil, Soviet intervention in Afghanistan and the impact of the Iranian revolution prompted investors to heavily buy gold. After adjusting for inflation, the 1980 high was $2,119.30 at 2007 prices.

The market has ridden waves of investor buying, which lifted prices nearly 50 percent in the past six months, ignoring a handful of negative factors, with most players betting on even higher prices this year and next.

Read more at Reuters

Money-Market Rate for Euros Climbs to Seven-Week High

2008-03-06T05:54:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- The cost of borrowing euros for three months rose to the highest level in seven weeks as the coordinated effort by central banks to revive lending falters.

The euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor, for the loans climbed 3 basis points to 4.43 percent today, the highest since Jan. 17, the European Banking Federation said. It was the biggest gain since Jan. 25.

The increase in money-market rates adds to evidence a concerted plan by central banks to promote lending and limit the fallout from the U.S. housing slump isn't working. Banks' asset writedowns and credit losses exceeded $181 billion since the beginning of 2007, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Total writedowns may top $600 billion, UBS said last week.

``This will continue to be the story for all 2008,'' said Nathalie Fillet, a senior interest-rate strategist at BNP Paribas SA in London. ``It's less a pure liquidity squeeze like at the end of last year than a reflection that the global credit crisis will last a while.''

Borrowing costs fell earlier this year after policy makers from the U.S., U.K., euro region, Switzerland and Canada announced plans on Dec. 12 to counter the credit shortage. The ECB injected a record $500 billion into the banking system on Dec. 18. The Federal Reserve provided $160 billion in short-term loans since mid-December in six auctions through the Term Auction Facility.

OIS Spread

The difference between the rate banks charge for one-month dollar loans in London relative to the overnight indexed swap rate, the so-called Libor OIS spread used by the Fed as the minimum bid level at its auctions, suggested a decline in the availability of funds. The spread increased to 54 basis points today, from 30 basis points in the week ended Feb. 22. It averaged 6 basis points in the first half of 2007 and 41 basis points since then.

Overnight indexed swaps are derivatives in which one party agrees to pay a fixed rate in exchange for receiving the average of a floating central bank rate over the life of the swap. For swaps based in U.S. dollars, the floating rate is the daily effective federal funds rate.

The difference, or spread, between the three-month money- market rate and the European Central Bank's benchmark rate was 43 basis points. It averaged 25 basis points in the first half of 2007.

``The leverage crunch is unlikely to disappear over the next few weeks,'' Stuart Thomson, a money manager who helps oversee $46 billion in bonds at Glasgow, Scotland-based Resolution Investment Management Ltd., said in an e-mailed note today.

Read more at Bloomberg

Ambac to Sell Half the Company, Bet May Not Pay Off

2008-03-06T05:49:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- Ambac Financial Group Inc., the bond insurer seeking capital to salvage its AAA credit rating, will sell half the company in a bet some investors say won't pay off.

Ambac said yesterday it plans to issue $1 billion of common stock, more than doubling the number of shares outstanding. The New York-based company will also offer $500 million of units that convert to shares in 2011.

Investors had anticipated Ambac would be bailed out by banks, which would backstop a capital raising of as much as $3 billion, enough to overcome record losses on subprime-mortgage debt. Instead, the company announced it would raise half that amount in a transaction that would dilute existing shareholders, sending Ambac down 19 percent in New York Stock Exchange trading.

``The new offering is highly diluting to existing shareholders,'' Jim Ryan, an insurance analyst at Morningstar Inc. said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``The market was looking for a backstop, to say the least.''

The sale of common stock, managed by Credit Suisse Group, Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and UBS AG, is scheduled for tonight, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Ambac fell 26 cents to $8.44 in early New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have tumbled 90 percent in the past year, reducing the company's market value to $884 million.

Abandoned Plan

By proposing a sale of common shares, Ambac is reverting to a plan it abandoned in mid-January. The company announced a $1 billion sale Jan. 16, sparking a 70 percent plunge in its stock, and canceled the offering Jan. 18.

Ambac cut its dividend to 1 cent from 21 cents a share and said it will suspend writing guarantees on debt, including mortgage-backed bonds. The combined plans will probably bolster capital enough for an AAA rating, Moody's and S&P said yesterday.

Stock investors were ``expecting something different in terms of some type of a more orchestrated event that looked less like a conventional offering of common stock and more like a carefully crafted infusion from business partners,'' said Colin Glinsman, who oversees about $25 billion as chief investment officer at Oppenheimer Capital in New York.

Credit-default swaps tied to Ambac's AAA rated insurance unit rose 38 basis points to 513 basis points from 475 basis points before the announcement, according to CMA Datavision in London. A basis point on a credit-default swap contract protecting $10 million of debt from default for five years is equivalent to $1,000 a year.

CDO Losses

Credit-default swaps are financial instruments based on bonds and loans that are used to speculate on a company's ability to repay debt. They pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A rise indicates deterioration in the perception of credit quality; a decline, the opposite.

Ambac, its larger competitor MBIA Inc., and the rest of the industry stumbled after expanding beyond municipal insurance to guarantees on collateralized debt obligations that have since tumbled in value. Bond insurers with AAA ratings have guaranteed $2.4 trillion of debt.

The loss of Ambac's top rating would cast doubt on $556 billion of municipal and asset-backed securities insured by the company, forcing some investors to sell the debt and others to reduce their holdings.

Ambac, which pioneered municipal bond insurance in 1971, and the rest of the industry are reeling from their expansion into CDOs, which package pools of securities then split them into pieces with different ratings.

Read more at Bloomberg

Staples Net Income Falls 1% on Lower Retail Sales

2008-03-04T07:07:00.000-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- Staples Inc., the world's largest office-supplies retailer, said fourth-quarter profit fell 1 percent on lower North American retail sales to small companies and consumers.

Staples dropped in Nasdaq Stock Market trading.

Net income declined to $333.2 million, or 47 cents a share, from $336.5 million, or 46 cents, a year earlier, Staples said today in a statement. Profit met some analysts' estimates. Revenue for the three months ended Feb. 2 rose less than 1 percent to $5.32 billion. Staples cut its full-year forecast.

Sales at U.S. and Canadian stores open at least a year dropped 6 percent. Office-supply retailers' sales slowed as customers concerned about a declining job market and the worst housing slump in a quarter century reduced purchases of copiers and desks. North American sales have also declined at smaller competitors such as Office Depot Inc.

``The environment is hitting everyone pretty hard,'' Walter Todd, who helps manage $800 million for Greenwood Capital Associates LLC in Greenwood, South Carolina, said yesterday in an interview. ``It's all macro-driven.'' The firm held 175,048 Staples shares as of Dec. 31.

The retailer predicted a ``mid single-digit'' percentage increase in sales and ``high single-digit'' percentage growth in earnings per share for the year ending next Jan. 31. Staples said in November that it expects earnings per share this year to increase by a percentage in the ``low teens,'' with ``high single-digit'' sales growth.

Staples Stock

Staples, based in Framingham, Massachusetts, fell 54 cents, or 2.4 percent, to $21.95 at 9:44 a.m. in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading. The stock lost 2.5 percent of its value this year through yesterday, compared with a 20 percent decline for Office Depot, the second-largest office-supplies retailer.

``In the context of a tough retail environment, we view Staples as relatively stable,'' Jack Murphy, an analyst at William Blair & Co. in Chicago, wrote yesterday in a research note. He rates Staples shares a ``buy.''

Analysts estimated fourth-quarter profit of 47 cents a share, the average projection of 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Eleven analysts, on average, estimated sales of $5.4 billion.

In November, Staples forecast a ``low double-digit'' sales growth in the fourth quarter, with North American same-store sales unchanged or ``slightly negative.''

Read more at Bloomberg

Canada Cuts Rate a Half Point, Signals More Is Needed

2008-03-04T07:01:00.000-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate a half point, the first such move since 2001, and signaled it will have to act again to offset a slump in exports to the U.S.

Mark Carney, in his first decision as governor, cut the target rate for overnight loans between commercial banks to 3.5 percent, the lowest since March 2006. Thirteen of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted the move.

``Further monetary stimulus is likely to be required in the near term,'' the central bank said today in a statement from Ottawa. Signs of economic slowdown in Canada are ``materializing and, in some respects, intensifying.''

Tumbling exports to the U.S. will limit 2008 economic growth to a seven-year low of 1.8 percent, the central bank says, and have erased the country's broad trade surplus for the first time since 1999. The bigger rate cut today also helps catch up with moves this year by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and may slow the Canadian dollar's advance that has battered manufacturers.

``There are clear signs that the U.S. economy is likely to experience a deeper and more prolonged slowdown than had been projected,'' which will have ``significant spillover effects on the global economy,'' the Bank of Canada said today.

Canada's decision comes two days before meetings of the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank, where economists predict policy makers will keep rates unchanged.

Further Cuts

``With further rate cuts clearly needed to insure against the downside risks from a rapidly softening U.S. economy, and since monetary policy acts with a lag, we see no reason for the Bank of Canada to wait,'' Jacqui Douglas, economics strategist at TD Securities in Toronto, said before the decision.

The Fed is expected to cut borrowing costs again on March 18. Canada's benchmark is now half a point greater than that of the U.S., narrowing what was the biggest gap since June 2004. That premium has helped keep Canada's currency close to a record high.

The currency rose to a record 90.58 Canadian cents per U.S. dollar on Nov. 7 and has gained 26 percent in three years. Today it weakened 0.3 percent to 99.32 Canadian cents per U.S. dollar at 9:19 a.m. in Toronto.

Canada sends about three-quarters of its exports to the U.S., making the two countries the world's biggest trading partners, and the high dollar makes those goods less competitive. The U.S. economic woes have sapped demand for Canadian lumber and automobiles, two of the five biggest exports.

Read more at Bloomberg

Recovery may take longer than usual: Greenspan

2008-02-25T06:13:00.000-08:00

(Reuters) - Economic growth has stalled and recovery may take longer than usual, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said on Monday.

"As of right now, U.S. economic growth is at zero," Greenspan said at an investment conference in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia's second-largest city. "We are at stall speed."

"Recovery might take longer to emerge than it usually does," he added.

The longer growth stays at zero, the more likely the world's largest economy would start to contract, he said, adding that globalization of trade could ease some shocks.

"Growing globalization of trade and the economy would facilitate the absorption of shocks in the U.S.," he said.

In updated economic forecasts released last week, the U.S. central bank lowered its outlook for 2008 growth by a half percentage point to between 1.3 percent and 2 percent, citing the prolonged housing slump and bottlenecks in credit markets.

Read more at Reuters

Dresdner Bank says to support Ambac rescue

2008-02-25T06:09:00.000-08:00

(Reuters) - Dresdner Bank, part of the Allianz (ALVG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) insurance group, intends to support a rescue package for U.S. bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc (ABK.N: Quote, Profile, Research) with a sum in the low double-digit millions of euros, the head of Dresdner's investment banking operations said on Monday.

Various rescue options for Ambac were now under discussion, Stefan Jentzsch told reporters. "If what is now on the table comes to pass then we will take part in the package," he said.

Read more at Reuters

Citigroup May Post First-Quarter Loss, Whitney Says

2008-02-25T06:03:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank by assets, may post its second-straight quarterly loss because of writedowns on home-equity loans and junk-grade corporate loans, Oppenheimer & Co.'s Meredith Whitney said.

The bank may post a loss of $1.6 billion, or 28 cents a share, for the first quarter, compared with a profit of about $5 billion, or $1.01, a year earlier, Whitney wrote today in a note to clients. The prediction compares with the 63-cents per share average of 12 analyst estimates surveyed by Bloomberg.

The rate of loan losses is ``grossly underestimated by consensus estimates'' at Citigroup and other U.S. banks, Whitney wrote. ``Core fundamentals are rapidly deteriorating.'' She cut her per-share estimate for 2008 earnings by more than 70 percent to 75 cents. The New York-based company's shares could fall more than 36 percent to less than $16, she wrote. They've declined about 15 percent this year.

Citigroup posted a $9.8 billion loss for the fourth quarter, the widest in its 196-year history, after writing down subprime mortgage-linked collateralized debt obligations whose value plummeted last year as investors shunned securities linked to the least creditworthy borrowers. Vikram Pandit stepped in as chief executive officer in December, after Charles O. ``Chuck'' Prince was forced to resign.

Whitney was among the first analysts to gauge the depth of Citigroup's losses, writing in a note last October that the bank may have to cut dividend payments to shareholders for the first time since the 1990s. In January, the bank slashed its dividend by 41 percent, reversing a pledge made by its executive- committee chairman, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, to preserve the shareholder payout.

Read more at Bloomberg

SocGen in record loss, may take new writedowns

2008-02-21T08:42:00.001-08:00

(Reuters) - Societe Generale (SOGN.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) confirmed a record fourth-quarter loss of 3.35 billion euros ($4.93 billion) after absorbing a huge rogue trading scandal that has made France's second-biggest listed bank a potential takeover target.

The loss coincided with an internal report acknowledging that better systems might have prevented the costly stock market gambles it blames on junior trader Jerome Kerviel.

SocGen, like many of the world's top banks, has also been hit by losses related to a global credit crunch and the bank warned it may make further writedowns in the future.

Executive Chairman Daniel Bouton told Reuters the 144-year-old firm was determined to ride out the storm as an independent bank, despite reports of a potential bid from long-time suitor and arch-rival BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research).

"I am completely determined to continue with our strategy because, even taking into account our very bad year in 2007 due to the financial crisis and this fraud, it's this strategy which creates and will create the most value for shareholders," Bouton said in an interview. "This is my opinion, and it's one that's backed by the board."

SocGen's fourth-quarter net loss compared with a 1.18 billion euro profit a year earlier and a fourth-quarter profit of 1.0 billion euros unveiled by rival BNP Paribas, although BNP Paribas' results were down from the year before.

SocGen cut its 2007 dividend to 0.90 euro from 5.20 euros.

Read more at Reuters

Reed to buy ChoicePoint, sell info division

2008-02-21T08:37:00.001-08:00

(Reuters) - Reed Elsevier announced the acquisition of U.S. risk-management business ChoicePoint Inc for $4.1 billion including debt alongside its results, as well as a renewed cost-savings drive and the planned sale of an advertising-dependent information business.

Shares in Anglo-Dutch publisher Reed, which have outperformed the DJ Stoxx European media sector by 5 percent over the past year, jumped 6 percent to 619 pence on the news on Thursday.

The $4.1 billion for ChoicePoint comprises $3.5 billion in cash for the equity, at $50 per share, and 600 million pounds in debt. CheckPoint shares closed at $33.66 on Wednesday.

Reed said that combining ChoicePoint with its LexisNexis risk-information and its Analytics group would create a risk-management business with $1.5 billion in revenue and a leading position in a fast-growing market.

The London-based company said buying ChoicePoint had the unanimous backing of the U.S. company's board and now required shareholder and regulatory approval. ChoicePoint is based in Alpharetta, Ga. and employs around 5,500 people.

Reed also announced that it would divest its Reed Business Information (RBI) arm to reduce its exposure to cyclical advertising markets. The Reed exhibitions business will be kept.

Advertising accounts for around 60 percent of revenues at RBI, which itself generates around 20 percent of Reed's 4.6 billion pound group revenues.

Read more at Bloomberg

UBS to Shorten Ospel Term to One Year at Re-election

2008-02-21T08:33:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- UBS AG said it would reduce Chairman Marcel Ospel's next term of office to one year from three after Europe's largest bank by assets reported a record loss.

Ospel, 58, was a force behind the merger of Swiss Bank Corp. and Union Bank of Switzerland that created UBS in 1998 and has been chairman for seven years. UBS posted a 12.5 billion-franc ($11.4 billion) fourth-quarter loss after an expansion into debt trading led to writedowns when the U.S. housing market slumped.

``Shareholders have a lack of confidence and that is linked to Ospel's name,'' said Vinzenz Mathys, an analyst at the Ethos Foundation, an investor in UBS calling for a special audit of the bank's risk controls. ``We are disappointed because UBS could have proposed new candidates.''

Shareholders will vote on re-electing Ospel and two other board members to shortened terms at the annual general meeting on April 23, Zurich-based UBS said in an e-mailed statement today. Sergio Marchionne, Fiat SpA's chief executive officer, was named a non-executive vice chairman.

UBS's losses already led to the departures of former CEO Peter Wuffli, 50, his finance chief Clive Standish, 54, and Huw Jenkins, 50, who ran the investment bank.

``It will take at least a year, if not longer, to clean up things at UBS and Ospel being around means there will be no clean cut with mistakes of the past,'' said Ralf Rybarczyk, who manages 1.5 billion francs at DWS Investment GmbH, including UBS shares.

`Current Challenges'

Peter Voser, finance director at Royal Dutch Shell Plc, and Larry Weinbach, the former chairman of Unisys Corp., will also stand for re-election to one-year board terms at the annual meeting, UBS said. Voser, 49, will take over from Weinbach, 68, as chairman of the audit committee. In subsequent elections, all board members will be elected for one year, the company said.

Marchionne, 55, was named non-executive vice chairman to replace Marco Suter, 49, who was an executive vice chairman before taking on the role of chief financial officer in October. Italian newspaper MF reported on Feb. 15 that Marchionne was a possible replacement for Ospel, which the Fiat executive denied. He said in a statement today his new role is ``absolutely compatible'' with running Fiat.

``With these moves we have strengthened the leadership structure in order to manage UBS's current challenges,'' Ospel said in the statement. ``I proposed the new tenure rule to the board, and am prepared, pursuant to their request, to stand for re-election for one year.''

UBS rose 48 centimes, or 1.3 percent, to 36.80 francs by 2:08 p.m. in Swiss trading. The stock has fallen 30 percent this year, the fourth-worst performance on the 60-member Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index.

Read more at Bloomberg

Microsoft to Change Technology Practices in Bid to Appease EU

2008-02-21T08:28:00.000-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- Microsoft Corp., the world's biggest software maker, announced a series of changes in its technology and in how much information it gives developers about its products, in a bid to satisfy European regulators.

Read more at Bloomberg

KKR Financial Delays Repayments, Starts Negotiations

2008-02-20T10:31:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- KKR Financial Holdings LLC, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co.'s only publicly traded fixed-income fund, delayed repaying debt a second time in six months after failing to find buyers for commercial paper backed by mortgages.

Lenders to the fund agreed to the delay as KKR Financial seeks to restructure, the San Francisco-based company said yesterday in a regulatory filing. KKR Financial, whose stock has fallen 50 percent in the past year, didn't say how much debt is affected.

The announcement rekindled concerns that the decline in the market for short-term asset-backed debt, which totaled $1.2 trillion in August, will accelerate after a rebound early last month. Assets fell to $796 billion in the week ended Feb. 13, the third weekly drop. Standard & Poor's downgraded ratings on notes issued by KKR Pacific Funding Trust last week, citing uncertain pricing on the AAA rated securities that support them.

``The picture is getting worse and worse,'' said Felix Freund, who helps manage the equivalent of $14.7 billion of fixed-income securities at Frankfurt-based Union Investment GmbH. KKR Financial's second repayment extension ``shows there is still a lot of levered investments in the credit market that we can't see.''

About half the debt will be due by March 3 instead of Feb. 15, with the rest owed on March 25, according to the filing.

The talks come less than six months after the fund received a $230 million cash infusion from investors following losses on residential mortgages in the wake of the U.S. subprime crisis. The fund, led by Chief Executive Officer Saturnino Fanlo, raised a further $270 million in a rights offering with some of New York-based KKR's own partners buying shares in it, which had $19 billion of assets at the end of December.

Repricing `Driver'

The deferral drove investors to seek the security of government debt, sending 10-year Japanese bonds to the biggest gain in two weeks while perceived corporate risk in Asia and Europe soared. Contracts on Europe's Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings increased 26.5 basis points to 611.5 today, according to Deutsche Bank AG. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

``The driver behind the current repricing is KKR Financial Holdings delaying repayment of CP for the second time,'' analysts led by Mark Harmer, head of credit research at ING Groep NV, said in a note to clients today.

KKR Financial fell 30 cents, or 2.1 percent, to $14.23 at 11:44 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Zoe Watt, a spokeswoman for KKR in London, declined to comment.

IPO

Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, the New York-based investment firm run by Henry Kravis and George Roberts, raised $800 million in KKR Financial's initial public offering in June 2005, selling the shares for $24 apiece. The fund raised money by selling commercial paper to invest in mortgages. It sold almost half of its mortgage loans in August as prices on bonds linked to U.S. home loans started to drop, leaving it with about $5.3 billion of mortgages.

Both Kravis and Roberts sit on KKR Financial's six-member investment committee, alongside KKR Partner Scott Nuttall, KKR Financial's Fanlo and Chief Operating Officer David Netjes.

Kravis and Roberts started the firm with Jerome Kohlberg, their colleague from Bear Stearns Cos., in 1976. Kohlberg left in 1987 and started his own buyout group, Kohlberg & Co. LLC. The private-equity business owns more than 42 companies with more than $180 billion of annual revenue and about 800,000 workers around the world. The firm's investments range from Alliance Boots Ltd. in the U.K. to Texas power producer TXU Corp., now known as Energy Future Holdings Corp.

Read more at Bloomberg

U.S. Economy: Housing Slump Fails to Quell Inflation

2008-02-20T10:17:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- The two-year housing slump pushing the U.S. economy toward a recession hasn't alleviated inflation pressures, reports today showed.

Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent from December, with costs excluding food and energy climbing 0.3 percent, the most since June 2006, the Labor Department said. Builders started work on 1.012 million homes at an annual rate in January, close to a 16- year low, the Commerce Department reported in Washington.

The figures mean Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will need to consider raising interest rates as soon as the economy stabilizes. Bernanke, who last week said the Fed is prepared to keep lowering interest rates, warned that faster inflation would ``greatly complicate'' the central bank's job.

``What this means is that they don't have as much comfort to play with rates,'' Ellen Zentner, an economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, said on Bloomberg Television, referring to Fed officials. ``Once the U.S. economy looks like it's started to stabilize, they're going to have to jump right back in to that, raising rates back up to neutral.''

Treasury securities slumped after the consumer price report, while recouping most of the losses later. Ten-year note yields increased to 3.93 percent at 9:54 a.m. in New York from 3.90 percent late yesterday. The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index lost 0.8 percent, to 1,337.97.

Lowest Since 1991

Building permits, an indication of future construction, fell 3 percent to a 1.048 million rate, the lowest level since November 1991, today's Commerce report showed.

Housing starts were projected to rise to a 1.01 million pace from an originally reported 1.006 million rate in December, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 72 economists. Permits were forecast to drop to a 1.05 million rate, from 1.068 million in December.

``We don't think housing has hit bottom yet,'' said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. ``Until we get some stabilization in sales or even a mild improvement, it's likely that construction will continue to weaken.''

A jump in food and energy costs, rents and clothing prices led the consumer-price index higher last month. Economists had forecast a 0.3 percent increase, with the so-called core rate gaining 0.2 percent, Bloomberg surveys showed.

Today's price report ``certainly showed a broad-based intensification of inflation pressures,'' said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. While the Fed currently ``is looking at growth,'' inflation ``will come back on the radar screen'' when economic data improve, he said.

Food Costs

Food prices, which account for about one-seventh of the CPI, rose 0.7 percent, matching the biggest gain since May 2004, after a 0.1 percent increase in January. Energy prices last month increased 0.7 percent, after rising 1.7 percent the previous month.

``Even if energy prices remain flat, the continued rise in retail food prices will damp consumer spending growth,'' JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists wrote in a note to clients last week.

Fuel costs were up 4.5 percent. Apparel prices rose 0.4 percent after a 0.1 percent increase in December.

The consumer price index is the government's broadest gauge of costs for goods and services. Almost 60 percent of the CPI covers prices that consumers pay for services ranging from medical visits to airline fares and movie tickets.

Read more at Bloomberg

Bernanke Turns Notes Into Losers as Refinancing Rises

2008-02-19T06:54:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- The more Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke cuts interest rates, the less appealing 10-year Treasuries become to investors like Doug Dachille, chief executive officer of First Principles Capital Management LLC.

Consumers taking advantage of lower borrowing costs have pushed the Mortgage Bankers Association's refinancing index to its highest level since March 2004. Ten-year notes fell 4.83 percent in April 2004 as the extra cash homeowners pocketed from replacing high-rate loans spurred bigger gains in retail sales and consumer confidence than forecast.

As then, a drop in rates may help ease the burden of consumers' monthly payments and contribute to forecasts of a rebound in the economy, diminishing the appeal of government debt. The price of the 10-year note has fallen 3.15 percent since Jan. 23, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index data, and St. Louis Fed President William Poole said Feb. 11 that ``the best bet is that we will not have a recession.''

``There is no reason for people to bring the 10-year note yield down,'' said Dachille, 43, who manages $7 billion in assets at New York-based First Principles. Given that ``the Fed is cutting rates and the administration is providing a stimulus package, you'd expect that over the next two or three years the economy will recover.''

Policy makers slashed their target rate for overnight bank loans by 2.25 percentage points to 3 percent between Sept. 18 and Jan. 30. Bernanke indicated last week that he's prepared to cut rates further to revive the economy and encourage banks to lend.

Yields Climb

``More-expensive and less-available credit seems likely to continue to be a source of restraint,'' Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee on Feb. 14. The Fed ``will act in a timely manner as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks,'' he said.

Ten-year note yields rose 12 basis points, or 0.12 percentage point, to 3.77 percent last week, according to New York-based bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The price of the 3 1/2 percent security due in February 2018 fell 31/32, or $9.69 per $1,000 face amount, to 97 25/32. The yield climbed 9 basis points to 3.86 percent as of 9:19 a.m. in New York.

Yields are up from a low this year of 3.285 percent on Jan. 23, the day after the Fed reduced rates between policy meetings for the first time since the September 2001 terrorist attacks. They will rise to 3.89 percent by year-end, according to the median forecast of 65 economists in a Bloomberg News survey that puts a higher weighting on the most recent estimates.

A separate poll shows growth will likely accelerate to a 2.5 percent annual rate in the final three months of the year from 0.6 percent last quarter.

Past as Prologue

Mortgage refinancing applications soared ninefold between July 2001 and May 2003, according to the Mortgage Bankers trade group in Washington. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.65 percent in the following 12 months from 3.37 percent.

The MBA's refinancing index surged to 5,103.60 on Jan. 25, its highest level since June 2003, from 1,620.90 in the week ended Dec. 28, 2007. The average rate on a 30-year fixed loan fell to 5.48 percent on Jan. 24, according to Freddie Mac. That means a homeowner would save $81.40 a month on every $100,000 borrowed now compared with June, when rates rose to 6.74 percent.

The rise in refinancings may be skewed by borrowers submitting multiple applications for loans as bankers tighten lending standards, according to Joseph Mason, an associate professor of finance at Drexel University in Philadelphia.

`Restricting Access'

``I don't see a housing market recovery right now,'' said Mason, 43, who predicts Treasury yields will fall as investors continue to buy the debt as a haven from losses in higher risk markets. ``People can't get a mortgage'' because ``banks are restricting access to credit,'' he said.

Declining property values are also making it harder for a growing number of homeowners to refinance. By year-end as many as 15 million households may owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, according to an estimate from Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist of New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Even so, the drop in rates is helping homeowners with subprime adjustable-rate mortgages. Most of those loans are tied to the six-month London interbank offered rate, which has declined to 2.96 percent from last year's peak of 5.86 percent in September.

The decline in Libor will probably reduce scheduled increases through 2010 in subprime borrowers' payments to 8 percent on average, or $182, according to analysts at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. During August, the rise in Libor pointed to increases of 33 percent on average.

Read more at Bloomberg

U.S. Stocks Rise, Led by Energy Companies; European Shares Gain

2008-02-19T06:49:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, led by energy and mining companies, after oil gained for the seventh time in eight days and copper climbed to a four-month high.

Exxon Mobil Corp., the biggest U.S. fuel company, and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world's second-largest copper producer, advanced. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the biggest retailer, increased after fourth-quarter profit topped analysts' estimates. Rallies in raw-materials producers lifted Asia's stock benchmark to a two-week high, while European shares rebounded from earlier losses as insurers rose.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 14.13 points, or 1.1 percent, to 1,364.12 as of 9:41 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 121.63, or 1 percent, to 12,469.84. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 22.46, or 1 percent, to 2,344.26. The U.S. market was closed yesterday for Presidents' Day.

``The general earnings picture is quite good,'' said Lincoln Anderson, the Boston-based chief investment officer of LPL Financial Services, which helps oversee about $271 billion. ``U.S. stocks are sort of on sale.''

Fourth-quarter profit for the S&P 500's 412 members that have reported results dropped by an average 19 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Excluding financial companies, earnings climbed 18 percent. The S&P 500 trades at 13.9 times its members' estimated 2008 profit, based on analysts' projections compiled by Bloomberg. Index members last traded at a valuation of less than 14 times historic earnings in 1990.

Weekly Gain

The S&P 500 rose last week for the third time in a month after the biggest jump in oil since November lifted energy producers, and earnings from consumer companies exceeded analysts' estimates.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.6 percent today to a two-week high as Rio Tinto Group said it's seeking a bigger price increase for its iron ore from steelmakers than the 65 percent obtained by a rival.

Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index rose 0.9 percent after earlier declining as much as 1.3 percent. A gauge of insurers added 2.1 percent for the biggest gain among 18 industry groups.

Read more at Bloomberg

Staples in 2.5 bln euro offer for Corp. Express

2008-02-19T06:42:00.001-08:00

(Reuters) - U.S. office goods supplier Staples proposed a 7.25 euros per share offer for Dutch peer Corporate Express on Tuesday, valuing the company at around 2.5 billion euros ($3.68 billion).

Ending months of speculation about a possible bid, Staples said its all-cash offer represented a premium of around 67 percent to Corporate Express' closing price of February 4. Shares in Corporate Express jumped 33 percent on the news.

Corporate Express, one of the world's largest office products wholesalers, has been under pressure from hedge funds to put itself up for sale after losses in the United States, its key market. It was not immediately available to comment.

"Staples has high regard for the Corporate Express management team, and believes together our combined companies will create significant opportunities for all stakeholders," said Ron Sargent, Staples chairman and chief executive.

Read more at Reuters

Exxon open to Venezuela talks, ready to fight

2008-02-18T08:44:00.001-08:00

(Reuters) - Exxon Mobil (XOM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) is ready to talk to the Venezuelan government to settle a dispute over the forced acquisition of its oilfields, after gaining a court order to freeze $12 billion of Venezuelan assets, a senior executive said on Monday.

But the U.S. oil major said it was also prepared to fight to assert its interests if it has to.

"We have indicated to the Venezuelan government that we're still prepared to talk, but should that not be the case, we'll protect our rights," Robert Olsen, chairman of Exxon Mobil International told Reuters in an interview at the sidelines of the International Petroleum Week conference in London.

Leftist President Hugo Chavez told foreign oil companies last year to cede a majority stake in oil projects or leave the country.

Most agreed and accepted bids for stakes in their projects from state oil company PDVSA, bids that analysts said were below market value.

But Exxon and rival oil major ConocoPhillips (COP.N: Quote, Profile, Research) opted to pull out rather than give in to government demands.

Olsen, who is also head of production for Europe, the Caspian and Russia, told the conference that resource-holding governments should stick to the terms they agree with foreign investors.

Read more at Reuters

Fed's Lower Rates Pressure China to Strengthen Yuan

2008-02-18T08:31:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- Like it or not, China has no choice other than to let the yuan appreciate against the dollar.

The combination of the world's fastest economic growth, the highest inflation rate in 11 years and the rising cost of intervention will force gains in the yuan to accelerate, even as policy makers in Beijing resist calls from the West to let the currency appreciate at a faster pace, say Pacific Investment Management Co. and Pictet & Cie., Switzerland's largest closely held private bank.

Central bankers in Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines are in the same situation, making their currencies attractive, according to money managers at the firms and Merrill Lynch & Co. Nine of the 10 best-performing currencies against the dollar in 2008 will come from Asia, surveys of foreign exchange strategists by Bloomberg show.

``You're likely to see less intervention,'' said Ramin Toloui, who helps oversee more than $60 billion in emerging- market bonds and currencies at Newport Beach, California-based Pimco. ``Several Asian central banks see more rapid exchange- rate appreciation as an important tool to fight inflation.''

After rising 7 percent last year, the yuan has appreciated 1.9 percent to 7.1623 per dollar so far in 2008. New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co., the world's ninth-biggest currency trader, predicts a further 14 percent increase, while Citigroup Inc. in New York, the third-largest, forecasts a 6 percent advance.

Thailand's baht has climbed 3.7 percent to 32.53 this year, while the Taiwan dollar is up 2.4 percent to NT$31.75. The yuan rose 0.3 percent today, the most in six weeks, and the Singapore dollar gained as much as 0.2 percent to S$1.4107, its highest in more than a decade.

Inflation Battle

While the International Monetary Fund expects growth in Asian emerging markets will slow to 8.6 percent in 2008 from 9.6 percent last year, that's still six times faster than the 1.5 percent expansion predicted for the U.S.

Consumer prices in the region's 10 largest economies outside Japan are rising at an average annual rate of 5.30 percent, compared with 4.10 percent in the U.S., data compiled by Bloomberg show. Faster inflation raises the odds that central banks in Asia will increase interest rates, bolstering the appeal of their currencies.

``We are long Asian currencies,'' said Donald Amstad, head of Asia-Pacific fixed-income at Aberdeen, Scotland-based Aberdeen Asset Management Plc, which oversees $205 billion. ``Asia is in relatively better shape than the rest of the world.'' A ``long'' position is a bet that a currency will gain.

Costly Option

To keep their currencies from appreciating too fast and hurting exporters, Asian central banks have bought U.S. dollars, accumulating $4 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves.

The downside to intervention is that it increases the supply of the local currency, which tends to fuel inflation. To prevent that from happening, Asian central banks typically sell bonds to remove those funds from the economy.

That option has become more costly because interest on the debt is paid with income from its reserves, which are invested in dollar-denominated securities. The People's Bank of China pays 1.31 percentage points more on its six-month bills than it earns on similar-maturity Treasuries following the U.S. Federal Reserve's five rate cuts since September. Six months ago, the spread was 2.2 percentage points in favor of U.S. debt.

Read more at Bloomberg

Bayer, Onyx Stop Cancer Trial on Higher Death Rate

2008-02-18T08:29:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- Bayer AG, Germany's biggest drugmaker, and U.S. partner Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. stopped a late-stage test of their Nexavar cancer drug in lung tumors because of a higher death rate among some of the patients.

An independent committee that monitors trials advised the companies that the treatment wouldn't meet the main goal of the test, Leverkusen-based Bayer said today in a statement on PRNewswire.

Read more at Bloomberg

Best Buy Cuts Forecast, Citing Fourth-Quarter Sales

2008-02-15T06:23:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- Best Buy Co., the largest U.S. consumer electronics chain, cut its full-year earnings forecast to $3.05 to $3.10 a share, saying fourth-quarter revenue will fall short of targets.

The company had previously predicted earnings per share of $3.10 to $3.20 for the year ending March 1, Richfield, Minnesota- based Best Buy said in a statement today. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimated $3.17 a share on average.

``Soft domestic customer traffic in January, coupled with our near-term outlook, now indicate that our fourth-quarter revenue will fall short of our planned targets,'' Chief Executive Officer Brad Anderson said in the statement. ``Our December revenue results were in line with our expectations.''

Read more at Bloomberg

Comcast, Pressured by Holders, Sets Buyback, Dividend

2008-02-14T07:13:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- Comcast Corp., the cable-TV operator pressured to boost investor returns, said it will buy back $6.9 billion of its stock over two years and pay its first dividend in almost a decade, sending the shares up the most in five years.

Fourth-quarter net income rose 54 percent to $602 million, or 20 cents a share, from $390 million, or 13 cents, a year earlier, Philadelphia-based Comcast said today in a statement. Profit beat the 17-cent average of 17 analysts' estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Sales gained 14 percent to $8.01 billion.

The buyback and annual dividend of 25 cents followed criticism from investors including Chieftain Capital Management Inc., who said Comcast's acquisitions and capital spending were excessive. Last month, Chieftain called for Comcast to reward shareholders and oust Chief Executive Officer Brian Roberts.

``Investors had been looking for a return of cash,'' Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst Craig Moffett said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. ``That signals confidence from the management that they really do believe that capital intensity is going to fall. We got that this morning in a big share repurchase.''

Moffett, based in New York, rates the stock ``outperform.''

Comcast rose $1.26, or 7.1 percent, to $19.07 at 9:32 a.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market trading, after gaining as much as 7.2 percent, its biggest rise since October 2002. The stock had declined 35 percent in the past year before today.

The company may increase its dividend ``over time,'' co- Chief Financial Officer Michael Angelakis said on a conference call.

Read more at Bloomberg

UBS Won't Support Failing Auction-Rate Securities

2008-02-14T07:09:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- UBS AG won't buy auction-rate securities that fail to attract enough bidders, joining a growing number of dealers stepping back from the $300 billion market, said a person with direct knowledge of the situation.

The second-biggest underwriter of the securities, whose rates are reset periodically at auctions, notified its 8,200 U.S. brokers of the decision yesterday, said the person, who declined to be identified because the announcement wasn't publicly disclosed. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Citigroup Inc. allowed auctions to fail as mounting losses from the collapse of subprime mortgages causes capital markets to seize up.

Bank of America Corp. estimated in a report that 80 percent of all auctions of bonds sold by cities, hospitals and student loan agencies were unsuccessful yesterday. That may mean as much as $20 billion of bonds failed to find buyers, based on the $15 billion to $25 billion of auction-rate bonds scheduled for bidding daily, according to Alex Roever, a JPMorgan Chase & Co. fixed income analyst.

``We are kind of in uncharted territory right now,'' said Anne Kritzmire, a managing director for closed-end funds at Nuveen Investments in Chicago.

Auctions are failing as confidence in the creditworthiness of insurers backing the securities wanes, and as loss-plagued banks seek to avoid tying up their capital. More than 129 auctions failed yesterday, Kritzmire said.

Four-Fifths Fail

Rohini Pragasam, a spokeswoman for UBS, the second-biggest underwriter of municipal auction-rate debt after Citigroup in 2006 according to Thomson Financial, declined to comment. UBS, the dealer on the hospital corporation's auction, today posted the biggest-ever loss by a bank for the fourth quarter. The stock declined 2.34 francs ($2.12), or 5.7 percent, to 38.54 francs at 3:18 p.m. in Zurich.

Auction bonds have interest rates determined by bidding that typically occurs every seven, 28 or 35 days. When there aren't enough buyers, the auction fails and bondholders who wanted to sell are left holding the securities. Rates at failed auctions are set at a level spelled out in official statements issued at the initial bond sale.

Investors have little opportunity to judge the risk that auctions will fail because of little public disclosure about interest rates set at the periodic bidding or other details such as how many bids were submitted or how many bonds were offered for sale.

Reporting System Changes

The Municipal Securities Rulemaking board is working on changes to its trade reporting system that would reveal at least the interest rate on auction bonds when they are traded. Currently, only the price is disclosed.

``I think you need to have more transparency in terms of the market so that investors can judge liquidity risks and so that people, both retail investors and corporate investors, can decide where they want to put their money,'' Joseph Fichera, chief executive officer of Saber Partners, a New York based financial adviser to local governments, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

Until recently, UBS and other banks that collect fees for running auctions have stepped in with their capital to prevent failures when bidding faltered. These firms have grown unwilling to commit their money to auction-rate securities after suffering at least $133 billion in credit losses and mortgage writedowns stemming from the subprime mortgage collapse.

Read more at Bloomberg

Coca-Cola profit rises sharply

2008-02-13T10:11:00.001-08:00

(Reuters) - Coca-Cola Co (KO.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the world's largest maker of soft drinks, reported higher-than-expected quarterly profit on Wednesday, helped by higher sales, acquisitions and foreign exchange rates.

Coca-Cola said fourth-quarter net income was $1.21 billion, or 52 cents per share, compared with $678 million, or 29 cents per share, a year ago.

Excluding charges, Coke earned 58 cents per share, topping analysts' average estimate of 55 cents, according to Reuters Estimates.

Net operating revenue rose to $7.33 billion from $5.93 billion a year ago, helped by a 6 percent increase in sales of drink concentrate, the company's main business.

Currency exchange rates boosted revenue 8 percentage points, since the weak dollar versus foreign currencies increases the value of international sales when they are converted to U.S. dollars for inclusion on the company's income statement.

Unit case volume rose 5 percent in the quarter, supported by acquisitions.

Coke, which owns about 35 percent of its bottler Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc (CCE.N: Quote, Profile, Research), saw its year-ago profit impacted by an asset write-down the bottler took related to its North American franchise license.

Read more at Reuters

U.S. Stocks Advance for Third Day, Led by Tech, Energy Shares

2008-02-13T09:37:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose for a third day, the longest stretch of gains in 2008, after increased demand at Applied Materials Inc. spurred a technology rally and energy shares climbed on higher gas-station sales.

Applied Materials, the largest maker of semiconductor- production equipment, advanced the most in four years on a surge in orders for machines that make flat screens. Exxon Mobil Corp. and ConocoPhillips led oil companies higher after the Commerce Department said rising prices at filling stations helped boost retail sales last month. Genentech Inc., the biggest U.S. maker of anti-cancer drugs, rallied the most in a month after its Avastin treatment helped slow the spread of breast tumors.

``The rally could last,'' said Eric Green, who helps manage $5 billion as senior managing partner at Penn Capital Management in Cherry Hill, New Jersey. ``We see the market heading higher.''

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 8.71 points, or 0.7 percent, to 1,357.57 at 11:31 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 89.98, or 0.7 percent, to 12,463.39. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 31.57, or 1.4 percent, to 2,351.51. About five stocks rose for every two that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. European and Asian benchmarks dropped.

Applied Materials' report of increasing demand spurred speculation that technology companies' earnings will withstand an economic slowdown sparked by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market. The S&P 500 Information Technology Index has lost 14 percent this year, the worst performance among 10 industries.

Applied Materials

Applied Materials rose $1.26, or 7 percent, to $19.33. The company said orders for machines that make flat screens will rise as much as 5 percent this quarter, exceeding some analysts' estimates.

A gauge of computer-chip makers gained 1.8 percent, the second most among 24 industries in the S&P 500, led by Applied Materials, its third-biggest member.

Exxon, the largest U.S. crude producer, climbed $1.16 to $85.54. ConocoPhillips, the third-biggest, rallied 98 cents to $77.38. Energy companies in the S&P 500 climbed 1.4 percent even as oil for March delivery fell 44 cents to $92.34 a barrel in New York.

Filling station sales rose 2 percent in January after remaining unchanged the prior month, the Commerce Department said, as regular gasoline rose as high as $3.11 a gallon in early January. Total retail sales climbed 0.3 percent, compared with economists' forecast for a drop of 0.3 percent. Excluding gas, purchases rose 0.1 percent last month, the Commerce Department said.

Retailers in the S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent as a group after the report.

Genentech Rallies

Genentech added $1.46 to $71.38. The results were from a trial called Avado, which included patients who took Avastin with docetaxel chemotherapy.

Industrial companies also rose, led by Rockwell Automation Inc., the world's largest maker of factory controls, after the report on purchases by consumers bolstered confidence in the sagging economy. Rockwell increased $2.02, or 3.6 percent, to $57.60.

Deere & Co., the world's largest maker of farm tractors and combines, fell 97 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $85.51. Deere's comments that the U.S. housing slump will maintain ``continued pressure'' on sales of construction and forestry equipment overshadowed its increased annual forecast and first-quarter earnings surge.

A survey of Bloomberg users showed benchmarks for the world's biggest stock markets probably will fall for the next six months as economic growth slows, and investors are the most pessimistic in the U.S. and the U.K.

Read more at Bloomberg

Adcock boss suspended

2008-02-12T11:19:00.001-08:00

(Fin24) - Consumer goods giant Tiger Brands says it will be extending its independent investigation into collusion allegations in its healthcaredivision into all its businesses.

"We will extend this investigation into every single business that we areinvolved in," Tiger Brands' non-executivechairperson Lex van Vught said ina statement.

"We are determined to find and root out any anti-competitive
or collusive practices," he said.

Also, the managing executive of Adcock Ingram Critical Care, Arthur Barnett,has been suspended by the board pending the conclusion of the independentinvestigation.

Van Vught said the company was "devastated" at the allegations.

Read more at Fin24

Rand regroups, gains nearly 1%

2008-02-12T11:15:00.001-08:00

(Fin24) - The rand currency strengthened nearly one percent against the dollar and bonds also firmed, regrouping after a sharp fall over the past two weeks, as emerging market sentiment improved and stocks recovered further.

The local currency was trading at R7.71 to the dollar at 17:44 GMT, 0.9% stronger than its previous close in New York, after see-sawing between R7.6775 and R7.82 during the session.

Government bonds tracked the rand's move in relatively light trade, pulling back some of their sizable losses sparked by investor concern over an expected easing in economic growth.

Dealers said trade was largely flow-driven with dollar buying out of London early in the day paring gains before it drifted back on higher stocks and broader emerging market gains as those flows waned.

"Emerging markets are stronger, the dollar is weaker against the euro and local stocks are up on the Dow (Jones index) and we are just picking up that on the currency," ABN AMRO trader Paul Peter said.

"The slight correction today is on the back of the euro, the
JSE."

Read more at Fin24

Conservationists battle coal firm

2008-02-12T11:12:00.001-08:00

(Fin24) - A legal battle is brewing between conservationists and coal exploration company DMC Coal Mining over its plans to prospect for anthracite and torbanite in one of South Africa's most important regions for rare and endangered birds.

DMC Coal Mining has obtained prospecting rights to two properties in the Wakkerstroom region in south-eastern Mpumalanga and is also attempting to get prospecting rights over a further two properties.

This region had been previously examined by another coal exploration group - Keaton Energy - which decided not to apply for prospecting rights because of the sensitivity of the area.

DMC Coal Mining's plans are now being opposed by a number of environmental organisations including Birdlife South Africa, the Wildlife and Environment Society of South Africa, WWF-SA, the Endangered Wildlife Trust and the Ekangala Grassland Trust.

Reason is the region's importance as grassland and wetland habitat hosting a number of rare and endangered birds including Wattled Crane, Rudd's Lark, Botha's Lark and Blue Crane.

Read more at Fin24

AIG Credit-Default Swap Losses Won't Be `Material'

2008-02-12T10:56:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc., the world's largest insurer by assets, said ``over time'' it may recoup losses in assets that declined by $4.88 billion in value in October and November.

Any losses by the unit that issues so-called credit-default swaps won't be material to AIG, the firm said today in a statement. AIG rebounded in New York trading after falling the most in two decades yesterday on disclosure that writedowns from the contracts, sold to protect fixed-income investors, were four times bigger than a previous estimate.

Chief Executive Officer Martin Sullivan, who manages units that originate, insure and invest in subprime mortgages or securities, assured investors in December that writedowns tied to the U.S. housing market were ``manageable.'' The company, based in New York, has said it doesn't expect to sell mortgage- related investments at a loss when markets are weak.

While AIG ``may have illustrated questionable judgment'' in its accounting lapse, it ``does not necessarily increase the probability of real economic impairment'' on assets held to maturity, said Mark Lane, analyst at William Blair & Co. in Chicago, today in a research note. He rates the company ``outperform.''

AIG advanced $1.45, or 3.2 percent, to $46.19 at 12:48 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The company has lost about 33 percent in the past 12 months, trailing the 5.7 percent decline of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.

`Solid Upside'

``For patient investors willing to ride out near-term volatility, we see solid upside in the stock,'' said Morgan Stanley analyst Nigel Dally in a note to investors today. He rates the company ``overweight.''

The insurer's financial products unit issues contracts that promise to reimburse investors for losses tied to $505.5 billion of securities as of Nov. 25, including corporate debt, European mortgages and collateralized debt obligations, which bundle together loans.

AIG's independent auditor PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP found a ``material weakness'' in the company's accounting for the contracts, AIG said yesterday, and the insurer didn't know what they were worth at the end of 2007.

Read more at Bloomberg

U.S. Stocks Rise After Buffett Offers to Help Bond Insurers

2008-02-12T10:49:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose for a second day, led by financial shares, on expectations Warren Buffett, the world's No. 1 investor, will help calm credit markets by offering to shore up bond insurers' finances.

Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., the three largest U.S. banks, climbed after Buffett said he's willing to take on $800 billion in municipal bond obligations in an interview with CNBC. Monsanto Co., the world's biggest seed producer, advanced for a third day on an increased profit forecast.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 13.99 points, or 1 percent, to 1,353.12 at 12:29 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 162.99, or 1.3 percent, to 12,403. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 15.24, or 0.7 percent, to 2,335.3. More than three stocks rose for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. Shares in Europe and Asia also gained.

``It's another potential solution to some of the credit problems,'' Mark Bronzo, who helps manage $11 billion at Security Global Investors in Irvington, New York, said of Buffett's offer. ``That's why the markets are responding well.''

Concern that bond insurers don't have enough money to pay claims on the $2.4 trillion in assets they guarantee has contributed to a 7.4 percent drop in S&P 500 financial shares in 2008. MBIA Inc., the largest bond insurer, lost 80 percent of its value in the last year before today, and smaller rival Ambac Financial Group Inc. slumped 88 percent, on concern that the companies will lose their AAA credit ratings.

Buffett's Offer

Citigroup added 73 cents to $26.54. Bank of America rallied 66 cents to $42.80. JPMorgan climbed 46 cents to $43.81. Bear Stearns Cos., the fifth-biggest U.S. securities firm, increased 49 cents to $80.25.

Buffett said he offered to take on the municipal-bond liabilities of MBIA, Ambac Financial and FGIC Corp. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. would provide so-called reinsurance for the debt, he said in an interview with CNBC television.

One company turned down the offer and the two others haven't responded, Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., told CNBC.

MBIA slipped 79 cents to $12.79. Ambac lost 29 cents to $10.19. Buffett's offer doesn't include the insurers' subprime- related obligations.

'Project Lifeline'

Financial shares also climbed on plans to help delinquent homeowners avoid foreclosure. Bank of America, Citigroup and four other U.S. lenders announced a plan to offer a 30-day freeze on home foreclosures while loan modifications are considered. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Alphonso Jackson said today at a news conference in Washington that ``Project Lifeline'' would help stabilize communities disrupted by mortgage defaults.

Monsanto rallied $3.27, or 2.9 percent, to $117.30 after raising its 2008 profit forecast on higher demand for weed killer and genetically modified corn and soybeans. Profit in the year ending Aug. 31 will increase to $2.70 to $2.80 a share, 20 cents above the range of a Jan. 3 forecast.

Schlumberger Ltd. advanced $2.57 to $83.06 after Bear Stearns raised its recommendation on the world's largest oilfield-services provider to ``outperform'' from ``peer perform,'' saying the company's offshore drilling and exploration make it ``well positioned for the next phase of the oilfield service business cycle.''

Schering-Plough

Schering-Plough Corp. gained $1.16 to $21.78. The maker of Vytorin and Zetia cholesterol pills reported fourth-quarter profit, excluding some items, of 52 cents a share, beating the 27-cent average estimate of 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

General Motors Corp., the world's largest automaker, gained after reporting an adjusted fourth-quarter profit, not counting costs and gains the company considers one-time items, of 8 cents a share. On that basis, analysts estimated a loss of 64 cents. GM's net loss in the quarter was $722 million.

The Russell 2000 Index, a benchmark for companies with a median market value of $589 million, gained 9.80, or 1.4 percent, to 709.55, led by GMH Communities Trust. The provider of housing to students and the military surged the most since its initial public offering in 2004 after agreeing to be bought in two transactions for a total of $787 million. GMH added $3.13, or 56 percent, to $8.72.

NxStage Medical Inc. fell the most since its 2005 initial public offering, dropping $3.30, or 26 percent, to $9.45. The maker of portable dialysis systems said it expects a loss of as much as $1.52 a share in 2008, wider than the $1.06 loss estimated by analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

World Wrestling Entertainment

World Wrestling Entertainment Inc. climbed $1.16, or 7.6 percent, to $16.47. The producer of television's ``WWE Friday Night SmackDown'' reported fourth-quarter revenue and profit that was higher than the average analyst estimate as video sales and ticket prices increased.

Read more at Bloomberg

Eskom's buyback plan in motion

2008-02-11T06:43:00.001-08:00

(Fin24) - State-owned power utility Eskom is negotiating to buy electricity from local industrial firms in a bid to solve an energy crisis, Public Enterprises Minister Alec Erwin said on Monday.

Eskom is under pressure to come up with a plan to increase power generation after weeks of rolling blackouts that have darkened millions of homes and forced businesses to shut. Large mining operations ground to a halt for five days last month.

"Large producers who would not normally want to be in electricity are now considering that there may be merit in them going into electricity production and selling to Eskom," Erwin told a media briefing in Cape Town.

Erwin told Reuters government was talking with Sasol, BHP Billiton and Anglo as it sought to boost power capacity.

"Clearly we are interested in that ... given the strictures on energy and the difficulties we have ... This opens an interesting possibility. We are in intensive negotiations now," Erwin said.

President Thabo Mbeki expressed confidence on Friday that the crisis would be solved quickly but did not give details of the
government's plan. There have been calls from media and opposition parties for him to sack several ministers.

Mbeki and other senior officials have blamed the country's booming economy for increasing demand for electricity, while acknowledging that warnings of such a problem went unheeded for years.

Read more at Fin24

BNP Paribas not planning SocGen bid: source

2008-02-11T06:39:00.001-08:00

(Reuters) - French bank BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) is not preparing a hostile takeover bid for embattled rival Societe Generale (SOGN.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) but could be interested in a friendly deal, a source familiar with the bank's thinking said on Monday.

A French financial newsletter report on Monday that BNP was preparing a 93-euros-a-share offer for SocGen was "total rubbish", the source said.

Read more at Reuters

Yahoo rejects Microsoft's bid

2008-02-11T06:31:00.001-08:00

(Reuters) - Yahoo Inc (YHOO.O: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday rejected Microsoft Corp's (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) unsolicited takeover bid, currently valued at $42 billion, as too low, saying its board had unanimously concluded it was not in the best interests of shareholders.

In a statement, Yahoo said the offer "substantially undervalues" the company.

Microsoft made the half-stock, half-cash offer on February 1. It was originally worth $44.6 billion or $31 per share -- a 62 percent premium to Yahoo's stock price. Since then, Microsoft shares have fallen and the deal is now worth $41.8 billion.

Read more at Reuters

Yang's $2 Blackjack Limit, EBay Failure Leave Yahoo Unprepared

2008-02-11T06:22:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- Fourteen years after publishing his first guide to the Internet from a Stanford University trailer, Jerry Yang isn't ready to see his creation absorbed by the world's largest software company.

Yahoo! Inc.'s 39-year-old co-founder survived the dot-com bust and weathered failed efforts to challenge EBay Inc. in online auctions and Google Inc. in Web searches. He and the board plan to reject Microsoft Corp.'s $44.6 billion bid today, a person familiar with the decision said, leaving Yang to battle to keep his Sunnyvale, California-based company independent.

While the offer lifted Yang's net worth by more than a half-billion dollars, money means little to Yang, former executives say. He spent his career building the most-visited U.S. Web site. Yang took his first crack at being chief executive officer in June, aiming to reclaim the company's dominance on the Internet.

``It's his baby,'' said Steve Mitgang, a Yahoo senior vice president who left last year to run Web TV company Veoh Networks Inc. in San Diego. ``He wants to win, and he wants to fight to win.''

The board spent a week reviewing the $31-per-share offer before deciding it was too low, said the person, who declined to be identified because the discussions aren't public. Yahoo wants at least $40, the Wall Street Journal reported this weekend.

Yahoo spokeswoman Diana Wong said over the weekend the company doesn't comment on rumors or speculation. Microsoft spokesman Bill Cox declined to comment.

In rejecting the offer, Yang confronts Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer and Yahoo investors whose stock tumbled by half in the past two years. Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft's $31-a- share offer on Feb. 1 was 62 percent higher than Yahoo's price before.

`Uncouth' Name

In an e-mail to his 14,000 employees last week, Yang said Yahoo was weighing its options. Analysts including Gartner Inc.'s Andrew Frank in New York said alternatives like linking up with Google or News Corp. won't work. Investors like Firsthand Capital Management's Kevin Landis said Microsoft made a ``fair offer.''

Born in Taiwan, Yang was brought to the U.S. when he was 10. He worked in the Stanford library to help fund his undergraduate education.

Yang and David Filo cooked up what became Yahoo in 1994 as graduate students. ``Jerry and David's Guide to the World Wide Web,'' used to keep track of their interests on the Internet, became a popular Web page in Silicon Valley. By the end of 1994, the site got more than 1 million hits a day.

Venture capital firm Sequoia Capital invested $2 million to help the duo build Yahoo, a name they picked because of its definition: ``rude, unsophisticated, uncouth.''

``He cares deeply about the thing he created in that trailer with Filo,'' said Rob Solomon, who worked at Yahoo for six years and is now CEO of the travel site SideStep Inc. in Santa Clara, California. ``They thought they could build a really big, new type of company, and they did.''

Too Rich

Yang wasn't available to comment, said spokeswoman Tracy Schmaler. Filo, responsible for the technical aspects of Yahoo's biggest sites, also wasn't available.

After Yahoo's initial public offering in 1996, sales jumped from $20 million to more than $1 billion in 2000 as advertisers rushed to tap the Internet's popularity. Yang and Filo were each worth more than $4 billion, according to Forbes magazine.

Wealth didn't turn Yang into a big spender, said John Cecil, a former Yahoo salesman. At a Las Vegas conference in 1998, the two were playing blackjack with Yahoo employees. Yang refused to bet more than $2 a hand, Cecil said.

``He said, `It's too rich for my blood,''' said Cecil, now president of the online ad company Innovate Media in Costa Mesa, California.

EBay Wins

Three years of surging sales lifted Yahoo's value past $100 billion, then the technology market crashed, wiping out 97 percent of Yahoo's worth. While the collapse sent Pets.com Inc. and Webvan Group Inc. into bankruptcy, Yahoo survived and began growing again in 2002.

Bigger competitors were emerging, crimping Yahoo's ability to expand beyond selling banner ads on Web pages. San Jose, California-based EBay became the dominant auction site. Google's search engine was pulling ad spending to a business that Yahoo lacked.

Solomon, 41, who ran the auction business, told Yang that Yahoo would be better suited investing elsewhere.

``The auction wars were won, and he didn't want to give up,'' Solomon said. ``That's not him being obstinate. It's him pushing us to come back with creative solutions and being tough.'' Yahoo closed the auction site last year.

Read more at Bloomberg

Europe's Economy May Stay Sick Longer After Catching U.S. Cold

2008-02-11T06:17:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- Europe's economy has caught the U.S.'s cold, and may be sick longer.

Persistent inflation and budget deficits may prevent policy makers in the 15 nations that share the euro from moving as aggressively as their U.S. counterparts to cut interest rates and taxes. Meanwhile, Europe's labor laws will make it harder for companies to speed a recovery in profits by reducing payrolls.

``A European downturn will take noticeably longer to run its course than the U.S. one,'' Nobel laureate Edmund Phelps, an economics professor at Columbia University in New York, said in an interview.

Next year ``might be a period of `reverse decoupling,' with the U.S. economy enjoying a sharp recovery and the euro-area economy stagnating,'' says Dario Perkins, senior European economist for ABN Amro Holding NV in London. ``A relatively inflexible economy and `sticky' inflation'' will hold Europe back, he says.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said twice last week that there is ``unusually high uncertainty'' about growth amid signs that Europe's resistance to the U.S. slowdown is finally wearing off.

``Risks are on the downside,'' he told reporters in Tokyo on Feb. 9 after a meeting of central bankers and finance ministers from the Group of Seven industrialized nations. The G- 7 officials said the U.S. economy may slow further, eroding global growth, and forecast no end to financial-market turmoil.

``Europe cannot go unscathed from the U.S.'s credit crisis,'' says Phelps.

Slower Growth

December retail sales in the euro region fell the most since 1995 and service industries grew in January at the slowest pace in more than four years. The European Union's statistics office will report Feb. 14 that the economy expanded 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter, half the pace of the previous three months, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

``Euro-zone growth is in trouble, and the risk of recession at some stage should not be underplayed,'' says David Brown, chief European economist at Bear Stearns International in London. He says the region will be ``very lucky'' to expand 1.5 percent this year, which would be the weakest since 2003.

Much of what ails Europe has its origins across the Atlantic. Borrowing costs for consumers and companies jumped as BNP Paribas SA and other European banks ran up losses on investments tied to U.S. mortgages. Exporters such as Heidelberg, Germany-based Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG, the world's largest maker of printing machines, blame declines in the dollar and U.S. demand for hurting profits.

Short, Shallow Recession

Economists Jan Hatzius at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Richard Berner of Morgan Stanley say the U.S. economy is already in a recession, and they predict that action by policy makers will ensure it is short and shallow.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues have cut interest rates five times in less than five months by a total of 2.25 percentage points. Congress last week passed an economic-stimulus package worth about $168 billion.

European policy makers have been slower to administer medicine. The ECB has left its benchmark unchanged at 4 percent for eight months as inflation accelerated to the highest level in 14 years and workers sought more pay in response.

While Trichet last week signaled that he's open to cutting interest rates for the first time in almost five years, he also said he doesn't anticipate inflation will moderate until the second half of the year. Consequently, while investors increased bets on rate cuts last week, they don't expect the ECB to start easing credit before the second quarter.

Delayed Response

Trichet's ``somewhat delayed and gradual policy response'' means the euro-area economy will lag behind the U.S., growing just 1.4 percent this year and 1.6 percent in 2009, compared with 1.9 percent and 3 percent for the U.S., says Janet Henry, chief European economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in London.

Few economists yet anticipate a recession in Europe. Potential housing busts are limited to a few countries, unemployment is at a record low and demand from emerging markets offsets a decline in trade with the U.S.

Inflation still may not retreat fast enough for the ECB to continue cutting as the Fed has. Price pressures persist longer in Europe than in the U.S. for several reasons. Competition among businesses is weaker, and employers have less flexibility on wages because of regulations that set minimum levels or tie worker pay to past inflation rates. German unions are still seeking above-inflation pay agreements.

Read more at Bloomberg

GM Proves Demise to No. 2 Premature on Topping Toyota Overseas

2008-02-11T06:14:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- Investors doubting General Motors Corp.'s comeback after a third straight annual loss should count the 2,500 crates of partially built Chevrolets leaving South Korea every day for plants in Poland and China.

With about six of every 10 new GM vehicles now sold overseas as U.S. production shrinks, the Detroit-based company fended off Toyota Motor Corp. last year and preserved its 77- year reign as the world's biggest automaker. Rising output abroad and a cost-saving labor contract may push profit to $12.75 a share by 2010, said Burnham Securities Inc. analyst David Healy.

Read more at Bloomberg

Regulators should allow bond insurers to fail: Ackman

2008-02-07T07:24:00.001-08:00

(Reuters) - Bill Ackman, whose hedge fund has been betting against bond insurers since at least 2002, said in a letter to U.S. regulators that rescuing the bond insurers will only prolong the credit crisis, and the companies should instead be allowed to fail.

In the letter obtained by Reuters, Ackman said bond insurers in recent years have become a means for banks to avoid reporting their full credit exposure and make their capital ratios appear stronger, but that banks should be forced to own up to their full credit risk.

"(W)e understand that the banking industry counterparties to the bond insurers would prefer to avoid taking these ... risks back on balance sheet -- particularly at a time when their balance sheets are strained by subprime and other losses that have not been hedged," Ackman wrote, adding that "there are no such free lunches available in the capital markets."

Bond insurers have in turn been critical of Ackman and other investors betting against the companies. On a recent conference call, MBIA Inc (MBI.N: Quote, Profile, Research) Chief Executive Gary Dunton railed against "the fear mongering and intentional distortions of facts about our business that have been pumped into the market by self-interested parties."

New York State Superintendent Eric Dinallo is working with banks to rescue bond insurers including Ambac Financial Group Inc (ABK.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and FGIC Corp, which face billions of dollars of potential losses after guaranteeing bonds linked to risky subprime mortgages and other debt.

Read more at Reuters

Retailers struggle through dismal January

2008-02-07T07:21:00.001-08:00

(Reuters) - Consumers held on to their cash and gift cards longer than usual and ignored widespread discounting in January, resulting in disappointing sales at many retailers, most notably industry leader Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

The world's largest retailer reported a 0.5 percent rise in January same-store sales, falling short of the 2 percent rise that analysts expected. Target Corp (TGT.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the No. 2 U.S. retailer posted a 1.1 percent drop in same-store sales, deeper than the 0.4 percent fall expected by Wall Street.

Wal-Mart said gift-card redemptions fell short of expectations, as consumers held on longer to their gift cards. Those who did, used gift cards for necessities like food and consumables, instead of higher margin discretionary items, the company said.

Reflecting the weakening economy and the tendency to trade down in tough times, warehouse retailers Costco Wholesale Corp (COST.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ.N: Quote, Profile, Research) both reported better-than-expected January sales, boosted by the demand for gasoline. Costco also cited strength in its deli, candy, small appliance and automotive businesses.

January's sales data follow a disappointing holiday season for retailers and come amid mounting fears that the U.S. economy could be tipping into recession, as consumers faced with higher fuel and food costs and a crumbling housing markets cut back on spending.

"January has been no different," said Ken Perkins, president of research firm Retail Metrics in a note on Wednesday. "Given the difficult economic backdrop retailers/ consumers are facing, expectations have still been pared to lower levels despite starting out at very modest initial projections."

Read more at Reuters

Pending Sales of Existing U.S. Homes Fell 1.5% in December

2008-02-07T07:16:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes fell in December for a second straight month, signaling the worst housing slump in 25 years will persist well into 2008.

The National Association of Realtors' index of signed purchase agreements decreased 1.5 percent to 85.9, the group said today. The drop follows a revised 3 percent decline for November that was larger than previously reported.

Today's report reinforces concern that the housing recession will linger as foreclosures add to a glut of unsold homes. The housing slump is weighing on the job market and consumer spending, putting pressure on Federal Reserve policy makers to lowering interest rates further to keep the economy out of a recession.

``The housing outlook has deteriorated significantly and I don't see a bottom on sales and starts until the middle of the year at the earliest,'' Scott Anderson, senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis, said before the report. ``And our outlook on home prices has gotten worse.''

Economists had forecast the index would fall 1 percent, according to the median of 33 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from a drop of 3 percent to an increase of 1.8 percent.

Compared with a year earlier, the measure was down 24.2 percent.

Forecast Lowered

The Realtors lowered their forecast for existing-home sales in 2008 to 5.38 million from a January forecast of 5.7 million. Last year, 5.65 million homes were sold. Purchases of new homes will decline to 637,000 from 774,000, the group said today.

Pending resales fell in three of four regions. Purchases decreased 3.1 percent in the West, 3 percent in the South and 1.7 percent in the Northeast. They rose 3.4 percent in the Midwest.

The real-estate agents' group began reporting pending home resales in March 2005 and has supplied historical data back to February 2001. The gauge is considered a leading indicator because it tracks contract signings. The Realtors reported Jan. 24 that existing-home purchases, which are compiled from closings, fell 2.2 percent in December, more than economists had forecast.

New-Home Sales

Another leading indicator of the housing market, new-home sales, fell in December to a 12-year low, according to Commerce Department statistics. New home sales also are recorded when a contract is signed.

Homebuilder Pulte Homes Inc. said Jan. 30 that it had its fifth consecutive quarterly loss in the fourth quarter because of falling sales. Chief Executive Officer Richard Dugas forecast there will be a net loss from continuing operations, excluding potential land charges and tax benefits, this quarter.

``Sales levels are still depressed as compared to prior periods,'' even though the company has lowered prices, Dugas said on a conference call on Jan. 31.

Builders have little incentive to start new projects until they see inventories of unsold homes coming down. Both new and existing homes had a 9.6 months supply on the market in December.

Read more at Bloomberg

Sales at U.S. Retailers Languish on Recession Concern

2008-02-07T07:13:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers languished in January as discounts failed to lure consumers concerned that a recession is coming. Macy's Inc. and Nordstrom Inc. reported declines, while sales at Wal-Mart Stores Inc. rose less than analysts estimated.

Sales at stores open at least a year gained 0.5 percent at Wal-Mart, the retailer said today, as winter storms hurt sales in the Midwest and fewer customers redeemed gift cards. Limited Brands Inc. and Target Corp. also reported declines larger than analysts predicted.

Department stores and mall-based shops slashed prices on clothing and bedding to attract customers following the slowest holiday season since 2002. Consumers refrained from spending as median home values probably fell for the first time since the Great Depression and employers cut back on hiring.

``You're seeing the continuing unfolding of the consumer spending slowdown,'' said Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics LLC, a Swampscott, Massachusetts-based research firm. ``Clearance sales were widespread, there were certainly enough incentives to draw the consumer in under normal economic circumstances, but consumers are hunkering down.''

Department stores have been hit hard by a decline in customer visits to malls and a lack of new products that excite consumers, Perkins said. Nordstrom's sales sank 6.6 percent. Analysts surveyed by Retail Metrics expected a 0.4 percent decline.

Macy's, the second-biggest U.S. department-store chain, said yesterday that January same-store sales dropped 7.1 percent, cut its fourth-quarter profit forecast and said it will eliminate 2,300 jobs. Kohl's, the fourth-largest U.S. department-store chain, said same-store sales fell 8.3 percent, worse than the estimate for a 7.9 percent drop.

Share Performance

Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, rose 7 cents to $48.90 at 9:41 a.m. in composite trading at the New York Stock Exchange. The Standard & Poor's 500 Retailing Index of 31 members rose 2.3 percent. It has slumped 5.1 percent this year before today compared with a 9.7 percent decline by the broader S&P 500.

January sales at U.S. retailers probably were unchanged, the International Council of Shopping Centers said on Feb. 5. That would be the first month without a gain since last April.

Last month will probably turn out to be the worst January performance on record, said Michael Niemira, the New York-based trade group's chief economist. The ICSC surveys almost 60 chains and will report figures later today.

Same-store sales are seen as a key gauge of a retailer's performance because they exclude locations that have recently opened or closed.

Limited Brands

Sales dropped 8 percent at Limited Brands, owner of the Victoria's Secret chain. The sales decrease exceeded the average analyst estimate for a decline of 7.1 percent. American Eagle Outfitters Inc. said yesterday that same-store sales fell 7 percent.

Wal-Mart had predicted a January same-store sales gain of 2 percent, the same as the average Retail Metrics estimate.

Target Corp., the second-largest U.S. discount chain, reported a 1.1 percent decline. It had said Jan. 21 it expected January sales to be ``near the low end'' of its forecast range of a 1 percent decrease to a 1 percent gain.

Other retailers performed better than analysts expected.

Children's Place Retail Stores Inc. reported a 6 percent same-store sales increase, ahead of the 3.6 percent estimated gain. AnnTaylor Stores Corp., a women's clothing retailer, said sales were unchanged from a year earlier, better than the estimated 3.7 percent decline. Chief Executive Officer Kay Krill said in the statement it was ``promotionally aggressive'' to clear inventory.

Read more at Bloomberg

Trichet Sees `Unusually High Uncertainty' on Growth

2008-02-07T07:12:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet signaled that risks to euro-region economic growth are increasing, prompting investors to raise bets on interest-rate cuts.

``As the reappraisal of risk in financial markets continues, there remains unusually high uncertainty about its overall impact on the real economy,'' Trichet said at a press conference in Frankfurt today after the ECB kept its key rate at 4 percent. ``We will continue to monitor very closely all developments over the coming weeks.''

The ECB has kept borrowing costs at a six-year high, declining to follow counterparts in the U.S. and Great Britain by cutting borrowing costs as it seeks to contain inflation in the 15 euro nations. Investors predict that a slowing economy will prompt the ECB to reduce its key interest rate.

``There is a greater acknowledgment that risks to growth are on the downside,'' said David Owen, chief European economist at Dresdner Kleinwort in London. ``The ECB's not going to cut in next couple of months, but it is starting to prepare the markets for rate reductions.''

The euro weakened 0.8 percent to $1.4521 at 3:21 p.m. in Frankfurt and the yield on 10-year German bunds fell 5 basis points to 3.85 percent.

Growth Forecasts

The ECB on Dec. 6 projected the euro-region economy to expand about 2 percent this year after 2.6 percent in 2007. Trichet said today that latest data confirmed the bank's assessment that ``risks surrounding the economic outlook lie on the downside.''

The International Monetary Fund on Jan. 29 cut its 2008 euro-region growth estimate by half a point to 1.6 percent, saying that ``no one is going to be exempt from some slowdown.'' The Washington-based fund also trimmed its growth estimates for the U.S. and Japan, the world's two largest economies.

Stock markets have dropped this year on concern the U.S. economy is sliding into a recession, curbing earnings growth. Germany's benchmark DAX Index has lost 16 percent this year and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index 12 percent.

The Bank of England today cut interest rates for the second time in three months, lowering the benchmark by a quarter point to 5.25 percent. The Fed last month lowered its rate by 1.25 percentage points in two reductions to 3 percent.

Read more at Bloomberg

BHP Falls After Raising Rio Offer to $147 Billion

2008-02-06T06:54:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, tumbled in London trading after raising its hostile bid for Rio Tinto Group to $147 billion and reporting the first drop in profit in more than five years.

BHP declined as much as 6.4 percent in London and fell the most in 20 years in Sydney after increasing its offer 13 percent to 3.4 shares for every one of Rio Tinto's. The Melbourne-based company reported today its fiscal first-half net income unexpectedly slipped 2.4 percent to $6 billion, citing higher production costs and lower prices for some metals.

Chief Executive Officer Marius Kloppers sweetened the bid five days after Aluminum Corp. of China, China's biggest aluminum company, bought a stake in Rio to block the takeover. The combination of BHP and Rio, the world's largest mining industry takeover, would cut operating costs in Western Australia and vie with Brazil's Cia. Vale do Rio Doce as the world's largest supplier of iron ore.

``BHP would not have been surprised by the emergence of the Chinese, but it has forced them to indicate they're serious about pursuing this deal,'' said Richard Dennis, a fund manager at Bournemouth, U.K.-based Wessex Asset Management, which has $490 million invested in natural-resource stocks. ``There will be another bid to come from BHP if they are to get final acceptance.''

BHP dropped as much as 102 pence to 1,495 pence, the biggest slide in more than two weeks, and was 4.6 percent lower at 1,523 pence as of 11:28 a.m. on the London Stock Exchange. Earlier it slumped 7.5 percent on the Australian Stock Exchange, the biggest decline since December 1987, amid a plunge in Asian stocks.

`Ratio Makes Sense'

Rio fell 14 pence, or 0.3 percent, to 5,420 pence in London. The shares traded at a premium of 2.7 percent over the value of the bid, based on BHP's current share price. Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., or Chalco, Chinalco's publicly traded unit, declined as much as 12 percent in Hong Kong trading.

State-owned Chinalco and Alcoa Inc. paid 6,000 pence ($117.85) a share for a 9 percent stake in Rio last week. That equated to 4.1 BHP shares for every one of Rio's London shares compared with BHP's initial three-for-one offer.

``Rio should be having a discussion,'' Don Williams, who helps manage $1.3 billion at Platypus Asset Management, said by phone from Sydney today. He sold half of Platypus's Rio holding on Feb. 4 after the Chinalco and Alcoa transaction. ``This ratio makes sense.''

BHP's bid values Rio at 13.6 times earnings before interest and tax, compared with the 13.7 times that Rio paid for Alcan Inc. last year.

Moody's Investors Service may cut BHP's fifth-highest investment-grade ranking of A1 following the offer, the credit assessor said in a statement. Standard & Poor's today affirmed BHP's rating and said the outlook was ``negative.''

Debt Risk

The risk of BHP and Rio defaulting on their debt, as measured using credit-default swaps, increased to records. Contracts on the BHP bonds, which rise as perceptions of credit quality deteriorate, gained 17.5 basis points to a record 110 basis points at 5:18 p.m. in Sydney.

BHP's debt will increase almost seven times to about $85 billion should the takeover proceed, said Anita Yadav, head of credit and hybrid research at UBS AG in Sydney.

Credit-default swaps on Rio Tinto's debt increased 10 basis points to 110 basis points. The price means it costs $110,000 to protect $10 million of debt from default for five years.

BHP, which made an initial approach in November, had until today to formalize its offer or walk away for six months after a U.K. Takeover Panel ruling.

Possible Counter Bid

Chinalco may be preparing a counter bid, the London-based Times newspaper said, citing unidentified people. Lu Youqing, vice president of Chinalco, wouldn't comment on the newspaper report when contacted by telephone. Chinalco and Alcoa said in a statement today they will ``closely monitor further developments.''

``What BHP faces is not just a state-owned company, but a country,'' Geoffrey Cheng, a Hong Kong-based mining analyst with Daiwa Institute of Research (HK) Ltd., said by telephone. ``I don't think Chinalco will make a general offer for Rio Tinto as it may face many regulatory hurdles.''

China needs raw materials to feed an economy that grew 11.4 percent in 2007, the fastest in 13 years. The nation's biggest commodity companies, including Chalco, have said they're concerned the combination would concentrate supplies and may wield too much pricing power.

``This is our first and only offer,'' Kloppers said in the media teleconference. ``We absolutely want full control of this company,'' Kloppers, 45, said. He wouldn't say whether it would be the final offer, a declaration that would prohibit him from raising the bid.

Read more at Bloomberg

Goldman's Viniar Says `Fear Overwhelms Greed' in Credit Markets

2008-02-06T06:52:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. credit markets are trading ``like we're in the middle of the worst recession we've seen in a very, very long time,'' Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Financial Officer David Viniar said at an investor conference today.

``There is a lot of liquidity out there, but people are very hesitant to use it,'' Viniar said at the conference in Naples, Florida, sponsored by Credit Suisse Group. ``Within the credit markets, fear has overwhelmed greed.''

Goldman, the most profitable securities firm in Wall Street history, is down 12 percent in New York Stock Exchange trading this year on concern a weakening economy will damp revenue from investment banking, trading and fund management. The level of interest from investment-banking clients is ``very high,'' though the economy will determine whether deals get done, Viniar said.

Viniar, 52, also said he expects to see a plan devised that will help the monoline bond insurers, which are facing potential rating downgrades.

``It is likely that you will see some solutions to what's going on with the monolines,'' he said. ``You have a number of companies who are involved in a lot of different things, so I think it's going to be more complicated'' than the industry bailout of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP in 1998.

Read more at Bloomberg

Wall St eyes bounce at open on media profits

2008-02-06T06:45:00.001-08:00

(Reuters) - Stocks headed for a higher open on Wednesday as profits from Walt Disney Co (DIS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Time Warner Inc (TWX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) pointed to strength in earnings outside of the financial sector.

In economic news, U.S. productivity in the fourth quarter rose at a stronger-than-expected pace as the biggest cutback in working hours in nearly five years helped restrain growth in labor costs, the Labor Department said.

The market was poised to rise a day after recession fears sent Wall Street and markets in Europe tumbling, while overnight markets in Asia also slid.

"It's probably the natural inclination of markets to try to bounce after a bad day," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co in New York. "There's no question that Disney helped and productivity numbers coming in better than expected didn't hurt either."

S&P 500 futures rose 4.7 points and were above fair value, a mathematical formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract.

Dow Jones industrial average futures were up 20 points. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 6.5 points.

In deal news, global miner BHP Billiton Ltd/Plc (BHP.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) launched a hostile $147.4 billion bid for rival miner Rio Tinto Ltd/Plc (RIO.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) on Wednesday, ending months of speculation and setting the stage for the world's second-largest takeover.

Read more at Reuters

Wachovia accused of aiding telemarketing fraud

2008-02-06T06:42:00.001-08:00

(Reuters) - Wachovia Corp (WB.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the fourth-largest U.S. bank, is fighting a lawsuit accusing it of letting fraudulent telemarketers use its accounts to bilk millions of dollars from consumers, court papers show.

Documents filed last month in the U.S. District Court in Philadelphia, also reported in the February 6 edition of The New York Times, detail accusations the bank and its lawyers knew about the fraud allegations for years.

The plaintiffs accused Wachovia of allowing some "payment processors" to create authorized, unsigned checks on behalf of telemarketers to withdraw funds from customer accounts between 2003 and 2006, court papers show.

They also accused Wachovia of trying to win or retain business from companies that it knew were accused of telemarketing fraud, despite being alerted by other banks about the deceptive activity, the papers show.

The original complaint was filed last April. Plaintiffs are seeking class-action status on behalf of at least 346,000 victims they say lost millions of dollars, the documents show.

Wachovia has sought to dismiss the complaint.

Read more at Reuters

Mattel CEO sees positive 2008, cost concerns

2008-02-06T06:37:00.001-08:00

(Reuters) - Mattel Inc's chief executive said on Wednesday he does not expect a repeat of last year's recalls of millions of Chinese-made toys and is "optimistic about 2008" despite an economic slowdown.

But Robert Eckert told Reuters in an interview that higher commodity and labor costs would force the world's leading toymaker to increase prices this year, noting a rise in the currency of China, where it makes a majority of its products.

"I am very optimistic about 2008 for Mattel and the toy industry on the whole," Eckert said.

"I think last year's recall news is behind us and the industry in general ... I just have a real sense of optimism about 2008.

"We are always mindful of what is going on in economies, but if you look at history, the toy industry has always held up very well in tough economic times and I think this will remain the case," he said.

Despite posting a better-than-expected profit for the fourth quarter -- earnings rose to $328.5 million from $286.4 million a year earlier -- operating profits fell as a result of increased costs, notably from the extensive recalls.

Mattel recalled over 21 million Chinese-made toys worldwide in 2007 due to excessive levels of lead paint and other unsafe components, stoking fears of a loss in consumer confidence.

Read more at Reuters

Justice Dept seeks change on futures exchanges: report

2008-02-06T06:36:00.001-08:00

(Reuters) - The U.S. Justice Department has called for change in financial futures exchanges, saying they should not own the trade clearing business as it inhibits competition, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.

Read more at Reuters

BHP raises Rio bid; no immediate Chinese riposte

2008-02-06T06:32:00.001-08:00

(Reuters) - BHP Billiton Ltd/Plc (BHP.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) launched a hostile $147.4 billion bid for rival miner Rio Tinto Ltd/Plc (RIO.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) on Wednesday, ending months of speculation and setting the stage for the world's second-largest takeover.

BHP hopes to sell Rio shareholders its idea of assembling a super miner, supplying the lion's share of the world's industries with millions of tonnes of minerals, but runs the risk of igniting a bidding war with Rio's largest shareholder, state-run aluminum group Aluminum Corp of China (Chinalco).

BHP (BLT.L: Quote, Profile, Research) sweetened its initial approach by 13 percent, offering 3.4 of its shares for every Rio (RIO.L: Quote, Profile, Research) share after a November proposal of three shares for one failed to persuade the Rio board to bless a friendly tie up.

"Rio Tinto shareholders will now decide," BHP Chief Executive Marius Kloppers told reporters. He added: "This is our first and only offer," though he later would not say if that meant it was the final one.

Some analysts doubted the sweetened bid would be enough to win Rio and create the world's third-richest company, ranked behind only Exxon Mobil (XOM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and General Electric (GE.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

"It's a lot fairer than the offer we've had before, (but) it's by no means a knock-out offer," said Bertie Thomson, a fund manager at Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN.L: Quote, Profile, Research), who holds both Rio and BHP shares.

"Given our market conditions and the outlook, if you look at comparative mergers and acquisitions, it probably is not going to get there," said Ken West, a Perennial Growth Management partner.

Read more at Reuters

Yahoo Owners May Prefer Microsoft Bid to Google Fight

2008-02-05T08:17:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- Jerry Yang, who pledged last year to lead his team of ``Yahoos'' to victory, may find investors would rather team up with Microsoft Corp.

Yahoo! Inc. rose the most since its first day of trading when Microsoft offered $44.6 billion for the company, the second-most popular search engine, on Feb. 1. Yang, who returned as Yahoo's chief executive officer to try to reverse a two-year stock slump, had presided over a 32 percent drop before the bid.

Microsoft said Yahoo executives snubbed its overtures last year in favor of tackling Internet search leader Google Inc. independently. Yahoo's stock performance shows investors don't embrace that strategy and that Yang's promises to revamp the company's search engine and gain on Google were in vain.

``It's hard to look shareholders in the eye and say it doesn't make sense,'' Robert Doll, chief investment officer of global equities at BlackRock Inc. in Princeton, New Jersey, said of Microsoft's unsolicited offer. ``There won't be a whole lot of options for Yahoo.'' He oversees $1.3 trillion in assets, including stock in Microsoft, the world's biggest software maker.

Microsoft's $31-a-share bid came three days after Sunnyvale, California-based Yahoo posted an eighth straight quarter of declining profit and projected sales that trailed most analysts' estimates.

Shares Gain

Yahoo was trading at $19.18 before the offer. The shares rose 48 percent in Nasdaq Stock Market trading on Feb. 1 and advanced 95 cents to $29.33 at 4 p.m. New York time today. Microsoft fell 26 cents to $30.19, while Google dropped $20.47 to $495.43.

Google Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt called Yang to suggest a potential partnership between the two companies to thwart Microsoft's bid, the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal reported today, citing people familiar with the matter.

``Yahoo has a lot of options, and you can look at what analysts have said about those options,'' spokeswoman Diana Wong said when asked about the Journal's report. Yahoo said in a statement on Feb. 1 that it will review the offer ``promptly.''

Yang, 39, agreed to take over at Yahoo in June, replacing Terry Semel, after its share of Web searches tumbled and the company lost out on sales of graphics-based ads mainly to social-networking sites like News Corp.'s MySpace and Facebook Inc.

In Semel's six years at the helm, he built Yahoo's online ad business through acquisitions and internal development. While the shares jumped almost sevenfold under his watch, Google's rising dominance led the stock to plunge 35 percent in 2006, and investors began calling for Semel to resign.

Yahoos Rally

``I'm ready to rally our near-12,000 Yahoos around the world,'' Yang said on a conference call when he took over. He planned to foster ``a winning culture, while strengthening our leadership team to galvanize Yahoos around our goals.''

Microsoft's bid came too soon for Yang to prove himself, said Ellen Siminoff, who worked with him at Yahoo for seven years and now leads Mountain View, California-based Efficient Frontier, which helps companies advertise on search engines.

``It's hard to get any sort of change that quickly,'' Siminoff said. ``He would rather sell having fixed the company than sell after a perception of weakness.''

Microsoft chose Yahoo as a partner after repeatedly coming in a distant third in Internet searches and failing to bolster advertising revenue on its own. Yahoo would give Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft the most popular group of Web sites in the U.S., which reach about 500 million people worldwide.

Reviewing the Deal

The U.S. Justice Department is ``interested'' in reviewing the antitrust implications of the deal, agency spokeswoman Gina Talamona said last week. Neelie Kroes, commissioner of competition for the European Commission, said her agency also would scrutinize a Microsoft-Yahoo deal.

The offer ``raises troubling questions'' for Web users, Google said yesterday, questioning whether Microsoft would seek to exert ``inappropriate'' influence over the Internet. Microsoft General Counsel Brad Smith disputed the claims in a statement.

Microsoft and Yahoo explored ways to work together in late 2006 and early 2007, according to a letter by Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer to the Yahoo board dated Jan. 31. Yahoo rejected the idea of being taken over by Microsoft a year ago, according to Ballmer, 51.

``I doubt that Jerry and David want to sell Yahoo,'' said Mark Cuban, the billionaire owner of basketball's Dallas Mavericks, who sold Broadcast.com to Yahoo in 1999. ``But this is a very smart move for Microsoft. There will surely be a ton of duplication on the technology side, which should cut costs significantly.''

Next Step

The offer from Microsoft is one of many options Yahoo is evaluating, Yang and Chairman Roy Bostock said in a Feb. 1 e- mail to employees obtained by Bloomberg News. The board will respond after reviewing the alternatives, they said. If Yahoo accepts the deal, Yang stands to get about $1.6 billion in cash or Microsoft stock for his 52.8 million shares.

Microsoft may seek to oust Yahoo board members should they reject its offer, said a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified. Under Yahoo's bylaws, stockholders must nominate directors by March 13, ahead of the company's annual meeting, the person said. Microsoft spokesman Frank Shaw declined to comment. Wong didn't immediately return a voicemail message.

Yahoo's advisers, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., are approaching other potential bidders in search of a higher offer, the New York Times reported Feb. 2.

Read more at Bloomberg

Hidden Swap Fees by JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley Hit School Boards

2008-02-05T08:14:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- James Barker saw no way out. In September 2003, the superintendent of the Erie City School District in Pennsylvania watched helplessly as his buildings began to crumble.

The 81-year-old Roosevelt Middle School was on the verge of being condemned. The district was running out of money to buy new textbooks. And the school board had determined that the 100,000-resident community 125 miles north of Pittsburgh couldn't afford a tax increase. Then JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second-largest bank in the U.S., made Barker an offer that seemed too good to be true.

David DiCarlo, an Erie-based JPMorgan Chase banker, told Barker and the school board on Sept. 4, 2003, that all they had to do was sign papers he said would benefit them if interest rates increased in the future, and the bank would give the district $750,000, a transcript of the board meeting shows.

``You have severe building needs; you have serious academic needs,'' Barker, 58, says. ``It's very hard to ignore the fact that the bank says it will give you cash.'' So Barker and the board members agreed to the deal.

What New York-based JPMorgan Chase didn't tell them, the transcript shows, was that the bank would get more in fees than the school district would get in cash: $1 million. The complex deal, which placed taxpayer money at risk, was linked to four variables involving interest rates. Three years later, as interest rate benchmarks went the wrong way for the school district, the Erie board paid $2.9 million to JPMorgan to get out of the deal, which officials now say they didn't understand.

``That was like a sucker punch,'' Barker says. ``It's not about the district and the superintendent. It's about resources being sucked out of the classroom. If it's happening here, it's happening in other places.''

$12 Billion in Deals

It is. During the past four years in Pennsylvania alone, banks have pitched at least 500 deals totaling $12 billion like the one JPMorgan Chase sold to Erie, according to records on file with the state Department of Community and Economic Development. Most of the transactions -- which occurred outside the state's largest cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh -- have been made without public bidding, which means that banks and advisers privately arranged the deals with small school districts, the records show.

JPMorgan's Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon declined to say if he thought the bank's fee disclosure was proper and whether the bank acted in a fair, responsible and moral manner in Erie.

Banker DiCarlo declined to comment. JPMorgan spokesman Brian Marchiony says the deal gave the school district immediate debt savings and protected it against unpredictable interest rate risk in the future. He declined to answer specific questions.

Overpaying Fees

The Pennsylvania transactions involve interest-rate swaps, which are derivatives. Derivatives are financial contracts whose value is based on other securities or indexes; interest-rate swaps are tied to future changes in lending rates.

The Pennsylvania deals show that school districts routinely lose when making derivative deals. They pay fees to banks that are as much as five times higher than typical rates and overpay advisers by as much as 10-fold. That means banks often underpay schools on upfront amounts, as JPMorgan Chase did in Erie, public records show. And school officials aren't always well served by their supposedly independent advisers, whose fees are paid by the banks selling the deals -- only if the sale is made.

`Getting Fleeced'

In 15 Pennsylvania school districts, officials entered into interest-rate-swap deals worth $28 million since 2003, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Of that dollar amount, the schools took in $15 million, and banks and advisers got the rest as fees, Bloomberg data show.

``The school districts are getting fleeced,'' Pennsylvania Governor Edward Rendell says. The governor, 64, a Democrat who has been in office since 2003, says the state might in the future advise schools and municipalities on derivatives contracts before they sign with banks. Christopher Cox, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, says he's concerned that municipalities are taking on more risk than in the past when they raised money primarily from bond sales.

``It's a serious issue, not only in Pennsylvania but across the country,'' says Cox, 55, who has headed the SEC since 2005. ``That is what we have seen repeatedly. More often than not, the municipalities aren't configured to have financial sophisticates in charge of these offerings -- and the result is that the firms are the only ones who know what's going on.''

Just five years ago, municipal derivative deals weren't sanctioned in Pennsylvania, the sixth-most-populous U.S. state. Then, in September 2003, the state Legislature adopted a law allowing schools and towns to use interest-rate swaps to lower borrowing costs and raise cash.

Exchanging Payments

In a swap, two parties agree to exchange payments over a period of time that can last as long as 30 years. Typically, one agrees to pay a fixed rate and the other to pay a variable rate that changes with a benchmark index or formula defined in the contract.

Public agencies can benefit by using derivatives to guard against swings in borrowing costs or to lock in current interest rates for bond sales they might not make for years. In many cases, school districts use swaps as a way to refinance bonds they've issued in the past.

Derivative deals can bring banks fees three times higher than the traditional selling of municipal bonds, public records show. School districts don't know whether they're getting fair market values with swaps because the contracts are private; they don't know how to compare their deals with those done by other districts.

`Profits Are Greater'

This lack of transparency is a boon for the banks, says Christopher ``Kit'' Taylor, executive director from 1978 to 2007 of the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board, a panel that issues rules on municipal bond sales.

``Business moves from transparent and competitive markets to markets where there is less transparency and the profits are greater,'' he says. ``If you don't know how much you're paying, you're going to be paying too much.''

The Pennsylvania swap law was passed after lobbying by financial advisory firms that stood to profit from such deals.

The legislation made the state a member of an expanding club. Forty states give government bodies explicit authority to make derivative deals, up from none 20 years ago, says David Taub, a lawyer who specializes in derivatives and is a partner at McDermott Will & Emery in New York.

Derivatives aren't regulated by the SEC, the MSRB or by states. Pennsylvania offers a clear look at these deals because, by law, all the contract records must be publicly filed with the state.

Pennsylvania Adviser

One derivative advisory firm that backed the Pennsylvania swaps legislation is Investment Management Advisory Group Inc., or IMAGE. The Pottstown, Pennsylvania-based company was raided by the Federal Bureau of Investigation in November 2006 in connection with a criminal antitrust investigation of bid rigging of investment contracts that are sold to states and municipalities.

The U.S. Justice Department is also probing municipal derivative deals. IMAGE has said it's cooperating with the probe. No charges have been filed.

In some Pennsylvania transactions, banks bought from school districts rights to exercise options on an interest-rate swap, or swaptions. Banks can choose to exercise the option if they stand to make money or can let the option expire if interest rates aren't favorable to them.

Banks Hedge Risk

The banks that arrange these deals create the swap contracts before pitching them to schools. Using software programs designed for valuing swaps, they calculate prices for which they can sell them after a school signs a contract. That's how the banks make money. For example, if a bank agrees to pay a district $800,000 in a deal it valued at $2 million, it could reap $1.2 million for itself and middlemen.

``They load it off instantly,'' says Taylor, who's now on the advisory board of Rockwater Municipal Advisors LLC, an Irvine, California-based investment firm.

Banks hedge their risk in derivative deals by making trades to cover possible losses to school districts. The banks make their money from fees, regardless of interest rate movements.

The reason Erie and other districts don't know how much the bank makes from a deal is because banks don't tell them, the records show. The money isn't paid immediately out of school budgets. Fees are hidden from schools because banks include those costs in the contract by adjusting interest rates up or down.

SEC Disclosure Rules

While the SEC doesn't regulate derivatives, it has authority to oversee how banks conduct transactions. SEC Chairman Cox says all financial firms should tell clients what their fees are before signing any deals.

``Brokers and advisers should disclose their compensation and conflicts of interest to their customers, and to the extent that they are regulated by the SEC, they must,'' he says.

Cox also says school district officials have a responsibility to the public and to bond investors to ensure their advisers are actually independent and acting in the best interests of taxpayers. ``To the extent that municipalities are participating in transactions they are not qualified for, there is an obligation to get good independent advice,'' he says.

More than two dozen Pennsylvania school districts bought swaps that bet on the spread between two interest rates. Many bet wrong. Since 2006, at least 27 school districts gambled that the spread would widen between either the five- or 10-year London interbank offered rate on the one hand and weekly municipal bond yields or the one-month Libor on the other.

The opposite happened: Spreads narrowed as long-term interest rates fell. The schools had to pay banks, or they could pay a steep exit fee, as Erie did with its swaption to cancel the deal.

Read more at Bloomberg

Unilever Growth to Sputter as P&G Takes Market Share in India

2008-02-05T08:11:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- Unilever, which sells soap to more than 500 million Indians, may see global revenue growth slow in 2010 as Procter & Gamble Co. and ITC Ltd. step up marketing in Asia's third-biggest economy.

The world's second-largest consumer products maker has relied on accelerating shipments of Surf Excel detergent in India to make up for sluggish sales in Europe. Now Cincinnati- based Procter & Gamble is stocking Indian stores with Olay skin- care products after nearly halving the local prices of Ariel and Tide detergents in 2004.

Asia and Africa, which make up about a third of Unilever's worldwide sales, will see their share of the company's growth fall to 2 percent in 2010 from 3.3 percent in 2007, according to Brussels-based brokerage Petercam SA. Revenue from the two continents rose 11.4 percent in the first nine months of last year, helping offset 1.9 percent growth in Europe and 4.2 percent in North and South America.

``Unilever is quite heavily dependent on the region for growth, so a slowdown there would hurt growth at Unilever as a whole,'' said Yann Gindraux, an analyst at Vontobel Holding AG in Zurich, speaking about Asia and Africa. He rates the stock ``sell'' and expects sales in the regions to expand by 9 percent in 2009 from 11 percent last year.

Unilever's overall sales growth will slow to 4.9 percent in 2010 from an estimated 5.3 percent in 2007, according to the median of five analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

2010 Expectations

Amid expectations of slowing growth by 2010, Unilever will return to 25.15 euros over the next 12 months -- about where it was at the start of the year -- according to analysts' estimates. The shares closed at 22 euros in Amsterdam trading yesterday, down 32 cents. Fourteen analysts recommend buying the stock. Another 14 say ``hold'' and nine ``sell.''

P&G, the world's largest consumer-goods maker, will continue to gain share in the next five years in India, according to Ali Dibadj, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein in New York, who rates the stock ``outperform.'' Hindustan Unilever Ltd., 52 percent owned by the London- and Rotterdam-based parent, lost ground in shampoo, bath soap, toothpaste and tea in the quarter ended Sept. 30, compared with the year earlier, according to the company. Its share of the shampoo market declined by more than a percentage point to 47.7 percent, the company said.

ITC, the largest Indian cigarette maker and partly owned by British American Tobacco Plc, is also making inroads. It started selling more brands including Fiama Di Wills shampoo and Superia soap last year as the government raised tobacco taxes.

`Profitable' Cigarettes

The tobacco maker ``has a very profitable cigarettes business which will help it to invest and expand its personal- care portfolio,'' said Anand Shah, an analyst at Angel Broking in Mumbai, who has a ``neutral'' rating on the stock. ``It has the ability to take losses in this segment as long as it grows its sales. This strategy will still satisfy investors.''

Rising prices of raw materials have made it more difficult for consumer-goods makers to pass on higher costs. The price of palm oil, used to make soaps and foods, has surged 70 percent in the past year.

``Given the competition, profitability will continue to be under pressure,'' said Macquarie Securities Ltd. analyst Unmesh Sharma, who has an ``underperform'' rating on Hindustan Unilever. He expects the stock to drop to 180 rupees ($4.57) in the next year from 190.9 rupees. The company has a market value of about $11.8 billion.

India is Unilever's biggest market in Asia, generating about 6 percent of annual sales. It has sold soap in the country since 1888 and controls about half of the sales of products such as skin creams, bathing soaps and shampoo.

Read more at Bloomberg

Apple Adds Pricier IPods, IPhones With More Storage

2008-02-05T08:03:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc. unveiled higher-priced models of its iPhone mobile handset and iPod media player with double the memory of previous versions.

The iPhone will now be available in a 16-gigbyte model for $499 and the iPod Touch in a $499, 32-gigabyte edition, the Cupertino, California-based company said today in a statement.

Apple's iPod shipment growth slowed last quarter, signaling that demand for the devices may be abating. The company introduced new models of the iPod, including the touch-screen version, in September to stimulate sales. Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs said he expects to sell 10 million iPhone handsets this year.

Apple fell 11 cents to $131.54 at 9:39 a.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market trading. The shares had dropped 34 percent this year before today.

Read more at Bloomberg

Treasuries Rise as Service Industries Contract, Stocks Decline

2008-02-05T07:59:00.001-08:00

(Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rallied, pushing two-year note yields close to a four-year low, on growing speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further after a report showed service industries unexpectedly contracted last month.

Two-year notes gained the most in a week as traders bet the central bank will slash its benchmark rate by a half-percentage point next month, the third reduction this year. Yields have tumbled about 2 percentage points since mid-September, when the Fed started lowering rates to avert a recession amid a slumping housing market.

The report ``strongly corroborates people who have already been saying we're in recession,'' said T.J. Marta, a fixed- income strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York. ``We're going to retest the lows in yields.''

The two-year yield fell about 11 basis points, or 0.11 percentage point, to 1.94 percent at 10:20 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The yield touched 1.837 percent on Jan. 23, the lowest since April 2004. The price of the 2 1/8 percent security due January 2010 rose about 1/4, or $2.50 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 11/32. Ten-year note yields fell 11 basis points to 3.54 percent.

The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index, which reflects almost 90 percent of the economy, fell to 41.9, the lowest since October 2001, the last time the U.S. was in a recession, from 54.4 the prior month, the Tempe, Arizona- based ISM said. A reading below 50 signals contraction.

100 Percent

Traders now see a 100 percent chance that policy makers will cut their lending target a half-point to 2.5 percent at their next scheduled meeting on March 18, compared with a 68 percent chance yesterday, according to futures on the Chicago Board of Trade.

The gap between two- and 10-year note yields widened to about 1.6 percentage points, the most since September 2004, from 1.58 basis points yesterday. Shorter-maturity notes are more sensitive to Fed rate changes, while debt maturing in 10 years or more is influenced more by inflation expectations.

U.S. stocks fell, increasing demand for the fixed payments on government debt. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 1.6 percent in early trading.

Read more at Bloomberg